Production fulfillment delayed?

[pan-y-cerveza]

I see absolutely 0 way they will convert anywhere near 75%. I mean if they do...holy cow..that would he huge. My guess is around 33%. 54,450 of 165k....unless the 165k number is complete garbage. 33% and 90k production comes in at 275k total reservations. There very well may be 275k...any updates ford...please on the 3rd qrtr earnings call update please.

I'm not sure about their numbers either. They reported 165,000 a month and a half ago and then again the other day. The first report, in July, was 150,000. I know that the majority would have come in July, but only 15,000 in the last two months? I would have figured more. I have a feeling any of those numbers were off. I also think they're dreaming if they'll convert 75%.

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[Mustard]

I agree that the 75% is way too optimistic, but that is what Ford stated. If they said 40%, then that's 66K Broncos, which they should be able to make by the end of 2021. I think they stated 75% so that the estimates were more then they could make in 2021 for a CYA -- we warned the customers that some might not get built until 2022. Some customers might be pissed, but could you imagine if Ford said they'd build them all in 2021 and then not meet that? Much better to under promise and over deliver.

The problem is, no one will know the total number of orders until the order banks close in January.

 

[Mattwings]

Just food for thought. Jeep sells about 225k Wranglers a year. Ford has 165k orders. Roughly 30% of those orders come from current or prior Jeep owners. That would mean 125k Is about 60% of the market demand for the Bronco relative to Jeep. Being an all new model and having several features that make the Bronco much more daily driver friendly (IFS, lower step in and expectation of improved NVH) I can easily see Ford converting 60% or more. That still takes them past 2021 to deliver the orders. I read and heard the reporting here in Detroit and no one has said that most orders will be in 2022, as others have mentioned, that’s a misquote or misinterpretation.

 

[The_Phew]

The new 4Runner will likely make an appearance before most of the Bronco reservations are fulfilled, and that'll entice a bunch of folks to wait and see what Toyota offers. Historically, Toyota dominates Ford on reliability+resale value, and that's a big factor for most consumers.

I'd say there's just as much latent demand for a 'modern' fixed-roof off-road 4x4 as there is for a Wrangler competitor (Bronco, in this case). I expect the next 4Runner will actually be competitive with the industry in terms of powertrains/tech/interior/etc. It'll look like a mutant catfish on the outside though. Shame too, because the 4th-gen 4Runner has perfect exterior styling.

 

[mdonathan56]

I'm sure a lot of thought has gone into that 75% conversion number. It has more implications than just us consumers, it plays into their SEC filings and Financial forecasts. I do believe if they were perceived to be, shall we say manipulating the market with overly optimistic projections someone would be paying them a visit.

 

[Calicorks]

I highly doubt Ford is going to sell 75% of the pre orders... a lot of people ordered one just to say they did. Others ordered at multiple dealerships to see who’s getting it first. I work in sales and say stuff like this to build more of a “urgency”. Ford will make as many as they can sell. If someone pre ordered, it could take until 2022 because some dealerships are putting their own orders in before some pre orders. This will allow them to add mark ups. Not all dealerships are as up front and honest as some on this forum.

 

[xXChartmanXx]

I'm taking bets that every Bronco reserved currently gets delivered before 2022. Too much money for Ford to sit on not to deliver. Also in no way do I believe they will convert 75% of pre-orders. Maybe if they only count 75% of the pre-orders still around when December order time comes, but not 75% of the preorders since July 13th. And I believe they are baking in fudge time in case crazy things happen like shutdowns due to COVID, part and resource issues due to COVID, chaos and fallout from the election (No matter who wins, their will be chaos), and possible Kaiju attacks (I mean its 2020, why not?). that being said my guess is our 165,000 current pre-orders turn into 100,000 orders. At a low ball average of 4000 cars a week (They can do as many as 7200), that's 16k a month which fulfills the preorders in 6 months. With first builds in April and deliveries in June, then the last pre-orders should be built in October and delivered by December.

 

[lowmpg]

A friend who lives in the Detroit area said the local news station mentioned that Ford was not going to be able to fulfill most of the Bronco orders until 2022. Has anyone else heard that? I've not seen any news. Anything anyone can share?

Nope and wouldn't believe that for a moment.

 

[rlynch356]

I wonder how ford is handling a configured reservation that is dropped/canceled by the customer, I would assume the dealer has first right of refusal on it. I.E. they take the configured build and sell it as dealer stock. That would make the 75% order to actual number plausible. as well as get some unallocated stock on the dealer lots.

I also think if they prod in April, and Oct 1 is the model year switch over @ 10k/units/month your looking at best case ~60k Units produced in Model year 2021, so roughly 1/2 of the order books (so far) fulfilled as 2021 Broncos.

Kinda makes both statements true (most of deliveries in 2022, and delivery in 2021 of reservation holders trucks.)

 

[Chrism81]

A friend who lives in the Detroit area said the local news station mentioned that Ford was not going to be able to fulfill most of the Bronco orders until 2022. Has anyone else heard that? I've not seen any news. Anything anyone can share?

There are so many rumors with everything who knows what is true.

 

[Treeza61]

I see absolutely 0 way they will convert anywhere near 75%. I mean if they do...holy cow..that would he huge. My guess is around 33%. 54,450 of 165k....unless the 165k number is complete garbage. 33% and 90k production comes in at 275k total reservations. There very well may be 275k...any updates ford...please on the 3rd qrtr earnings call update please.

They can build a 1000 a day.

 

[pan-y-cerveza]

I'm taking bets that every Bronco reserved currently gets delivered before 2022. Too much money for Ford to sit on not to deliver. Also in no way do I believe they will convert 75% of pre-orders. Maybe if they only count 75% of the pre-orders still around when December order time comes, but not 75% of the preorders since July 13th. And I believe they are baking in fudge time in case crazy things happen like shutdowns due to COVID, part and resource issues due to COVID, chaos and fallout from the election (No matter who wins, their will be chaos), and possible Kaiju attacks (I mean its 2020, why not?). that being said my guess is our 165,000 current pre-orders turn into 100,000 orders. At a low ball average of 4000 cars a week (They can do as many as 7200), that's 16k a month which fulfills the preorders in 6 months. With first builds in April and deliveries in June, then the last pre-orders should be built in October and delivered by December.

This has been my thoughts as well based on what little I've actually learned about the process.

I figure that 2022 quote was some CYA and that, since they haven't closed reservations, it may eventually come to that.

I reserved at the end of July. After they announced 150,000. From the numbers it seems they'll be able to produce I've always figured I'd be in by the end of 2021 without issues.

But in the end....What the hell do I know. I'm just a guy with the internet and some wishful thinking.

 

[Blksn955.o]

They can build a 1000 a day.

I was using numbers already noted in this thread. One of the posts in this thread also noted 10k a month.

 

[Kris87]

I'm taking bets that every Bronco reserved currently gets delivered before 2022.

I'd bet they don't...not even close honestly. There will be a bunch that turn into 2022's.

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