Prophecy

[noahr]

I think that's what they want.

well our reservations and craziness blew their most outlandish predictions out of the stratosphere so you may not be wrong. They may be seeing who is devoted enough to stick with it regardless

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[Fireman]

I was ok and comfortable with my initial build and price, not so much so now.

 

[noahr]

I really wish I could put a positive spin on this, but it might be time for a “reality check” as painful as that may be. So here goes……

I still believe the 190,000+ Bronco reservations is a massive headache for Ford, and they might be better served if that number was well under 100,000. Ford may be seeking an opportunity to rope in the runaway reservations. That process could be accomplished by either increasing prices or stretching out the delivery cycle or both. Based on comments from Esteban on 12/14/20, I expected to see price increases on both 2.7L with the auto as well as Sasquatch Package with more to come. If the potential buyer drops down to lower-priced models, those may have a longer delivery cycle.

I believe there will be some Broncos in circulation in 2021. Sort of like a few Ford Raptors are in circulation. I have no doubt “commodity problems” will shift many to 2022 and guess what? New pricing on those as well! When the 2021 orders are required to rebook as 2022 orders, I see no price guarantees. Eventually, the reservation volume will drop drastically, and the Ford dealers will get stock and make money by adding on dealer markups.

Brace yourself for a rollercoaster ride!

Yes the huge reservation number is way more than they expected but until we have conversions they are just smoke in the wind we paid a refundable deposit for the right to buy one not a locked in order. With sharing supply lines with 2 of the most in demand vehicles (f150 and ranger) as well as the shit show that is their external suppliers due to covid and other factors every facet of the production process is unbelievably unprepared and under equipped for what they are facing if there is even 80 percent. From what I have seen ford expected like 80k reservations not over 190k. They have promised us as dealers no dealer stock for 2021 and the dealer stock we get will be 2022's and only come after all of our reservations are filled with the exception of FCTP demo vehicles. That may change since they don't like to tell us things and I am saying that as a dealer and a customer. Prices now as they are are just smoke in the air and mean literally nothing. Until there is an invoice and vin number you don't know the price of your vehicle and that is the fact of life despite what others would say trying to lie to you or being ignorant themselves. We are along for the ride, I hope ford does the right thing and I think they will especially considering the potential ramifications of a large and angry community on their bottom line and reputation

 

[broadicustomworks]

Too many of these opinions I'm afraid will hit close to the truth. I'm game for waiting to see what things look like at order time. The topic has already come up in my house of dropping out. It was quickly dismissed but who knows.

Same. But luckily so far we put it to bed quickly with a few points that still carry weight:
-"We've waited several years for this, you've saved and planned several years for this, not something similar you could have already had."
-"We've been on this roller coaster ride now since July. If it is as long as it has been, we are halfway through it and it will be July 2021 before you know it."
-"WE both know the J__P is not the same level of vehicle because we've seen the BL in person, and both were blown away that the fit, finish, feel, and overall presence of the Bronc is so much better."
-"You are a early day 1 reserve, why throw that away this far in the game? We haven't lost a thing yet, let this play out."
-"It's what YOU want and have worked for, have talked about every day. Don't settle."

I am blessed to have a supportive, frank, and sometimes more-logical-than-me wife.

This is all a bunch of gloom and doom feeling stuff lately (and for a few months now), but stay the course as long as it makes sense to.
When it doesn't make sense or fit your plan, it's your business and not any of the rest of our place to judge.
I wish ya all luck and hope this all washes out for the better of the serious reservists in the end.
Those on the fence or yearning for something sooner than later might want to wait until the next MY or 2 where things offered could be much better than the first releases the rest of us get anyway.

 

[Beach_Bum]

I really wish I could put a positive spin on this, but it might be time for a “reality check” as painful as that may be. So here goes……

I still believe the 190,000+ Bronco reservations is a massive headache for Ford, and they might be better served if that number was well under 100,000. Ford may be seeking an opportunity to rope in the runaway reservations. That process could be accomplished by either increasing prices or stretching out the delivery cycle or both. Based on comments from Esteban on 12/14/20, I expected to see price increases on both 2.7L with the auto as well as Sasquatch Package with more to come. If the potential buyer drops down to lower-priced models, those may have a longer delivery cycle.

I believe there will be some Broncos in circulation in 2021. Sort of like a few Ford Raptors are in circulation. I have no doubt “commodity problems” will shift many to 2022 and guess what? New pricing on those as well! When the 2021 orders are required to rebook as 2022 orders, I see no price guarantees. Eventually, the reservation volume will drop drastically, and the Ford dealers will get stock and make money by adding on dealer markups.

Brace yourself for a rollercoaster ride!

When Esteban alluded to commodity constraints on the Sasquatch package, I was expecting a price increase. But also the priority of the allotment of the commodity would be towards upper trims. Ford has said the reservation timestamp will be factored in the scheduling, but also said that it is only one factor in an already complicated equation. When it comes time to schedule builds, I expect a Wildtrak buyer be given priority to the limited components that comprise the Sasquatch package versus a Basquatch buyer irregardless if the Base buyer was ahead in reservation timestamp. Ford has already pushed Mansquatch buyers to MY22. Lower trims opting for the Sasquatch package should brace themselves to be pushed to MY22.

 

[Pancho Kornwallace]

Ooooh. I want make a prediction too!

1 - For January B&P, they will announce that model intro in "Summer" will now be model year 2022. Because it is now a 2022 model, they can justify increasing the base MSRP of every model.

2 - A tweet will go out later saying that "Summer" includes December.

Summer is December in Australia and New Zealand. I posted this point weeks ago.

 

[Pork-n-Bean]

I think Ford would have had a better idea on the conversion rate if the reservation would have been 2000 to 3000 bucks. This likely would have saved a lot of drama for the consumer with less changes having to be made due to the perceived demand generated by all of the double, triple or other reservations made that people have no real intention of converting to an order.

 

[Coldsmoke]

Just throwing my two cents into the mix: Look, anyone who went through the build tool more than once KNEW there was something screwy with the pricing for the auto trans. Yeah, sure, it took Ford longer than we'd have liked or expected to fix a simple pricing/logic issue with their tool. But the pricing now makes more sense and gives me a bit more confidence that there won't be any surprises when I ultimately sit down with my dealer in January. Up to this point I always felt like I'd need to take a jar of vaseline to the dealer order discussion. Hopefully the pricing is now more accurate (except for known/reported issue with Sasquatch on BB). Again, just my two cents but I am ignoring all the gloom and doom that some are forecasting. As my favorite comedian Dennis Miller always says as he ends his rants, "that's my opinion but I could be wrong". ??

 

[PowPow]

At the rate they are going, they will be lucky to have a 30% conversion rate.

I don't think that's even slightly true.

You gotta remember, there's what 6k members on this forum? I'll even round up and say 10k. That's only 5% of reservations. You're in a bubble here.

and, there's no chance all (if there is) 10k members are actually posting. I pretty much see the same names, so maybe a few hundred. That's even a smaller bubble.

Probably most of the other 95% don't know nearly as much as the people on this forum. Nor do they even care. Most didn't even notice the B&P updates/glitches.

 

[PowPow]

I don't think that's even slightly true.

You gotta remember, there's what 6k members on this forum? I'll even round up and say 10k. That's only 5% of reservations. You're in a bubble here.

and, there's no chance all (if there is) 10k members are actually posting. I pretty much see the same names, so maybe a few hundred. That's even a smaller bubble.

Probably most of the other 95% don't know nearly as much as the people on this forum. Nor do they even care. Most didn't even notice the B&P updates/glitches.

ok, So I looked at the members tab. There's about 16k members. Still only 8% of reservations. And again, I stand by the only a few hundred are active. Maybe 1k... I'm sure there's a stat for that somewhere.

 

[mds5917]

I’m a dealership employee so the recall might not be available to the general public yet

Yeah,, or they realized it only affected the 7 customers who actually got one already so they didn't need to publish anything, really.

 

[Frank N]

I don't think that's even slightly true.

You gotta remember, there's what 6k members on this forum? I'll even round up and say 10k. That's only 5% of reservations. You're in a bubble here.

and, there's no chance all (if there is) 10k members are actually posting. I pretty much see the same names, so maybe a few hundred. That's even a smaller bubble.

Probably most of the other 95% don't know nearly as much as the people on this forum. Nor do they even care. Most didn't even notice the B&P updates/glitches.

I might have overstated a bit, lol, I also think many of those that actually go into the dealer and realize that they will shell out 50k to get a 12" screen and a heated steering wheel and the dealers aren't moving off MSRP, there is no XPLan, there is no finance deals, will be walking out disappointed or with an Explorer for 40k.

The new Bronco is out! Starting at 30k! Place a reservation now! Bring 50k to the dealer...WTF.

I'm not ordering until late February early March just to get a feel for how things are going and it might give me some leverage with one of the two dealers I have reservations with to negotiate on price...if not, I might just wait. I dont need a Bronco, I want a Bronco, there are plenty of people behind me ? OK. Sell to someone else....but my order will be taken elsewhere. They are going to be building these things as fast as they can make them, supply will exceed demand at a certain point.

 

[SafariJeff]

A reservation of $100 brings out everyone, a reservation at $1000 might have 50% or less people signing up out of the gate. When it comes down to draining the back account of $59K and $4700 to the state gov for the honor of buying a new vehicle tax or signing for $1000/month for 60 months, my prophecy is I still have to assume 30-40% conversions is high? Now throw in the goofy interior choices, 2022 deliveries, possible Warthog, possible new Excursion diesel, new beautiful Lincoln SUV's, etc...

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