Thoughts on not buying right now?

[bassist]

During Covid we bought a 20 acre lot with two homes. One a very nice modern but rustic log cabin, the other a a 1600 sq ft normal ranch, built in 2018. We are in the middle of nowhere. Closest Store is 30 min, same for health care but we love it. Paid $200k 4 1/2 years ago, now worth almost double. Bought the Bronco, 2 DR Wildtrak a year ago and still love this thing. Traded in my 2 door wrangler, which was paid off but I still owe on the Bronco which has depreciated like mad. What I can sell the Bronco for today is about $23k less than sticker price, though I got it for under that and with only 13k miles on it. All in about one years time. Cars drop value fast, homes do not.

LOL

You must be younger than me, because I remember all too well watching my house value drop in half pretty dang quick back during the Great Recession.

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[AZ_Craig]

You must be younger than me, because I remember all too well watching my house value drop in half pretty dang quick back during the Great Recession.

Folks forget, home equity is worthless until the day you actually sell to a buyer for your desirable price. Likewise, just because Zillow says your home is worth $1M doesn't mean you are going to get that given the current market.

I doubt we are heading for a housing crisis style crash at any time soon given market fundamentals, but a correction to the tune of 10 to 20 percent is definitely possible (and from what I understand already taking place in certain markets like Austin, TX and most of Florida).

 

[STuff1]

LOL

You must be younger than me, because I remember all too well watching my house value drop in half pretty dang quick back during the Great Recession.

I owned a home in AZ doing the Great Recession, foreclosed as it went from $500k to $200k in no time. I let it go. I then owned a home in AZ for many years after that. Paid $76k for it and sold it for $315K during Covid. We moved cross country and decided on being more secluded and saving money. I am 56 years old now.

 

[Reiningrl]

My stock portfolio has never been better than it is right now. I planned to look for a nice, used F150 at the start of this year. With my investments having doubled within the past year I’m now actively shopping for a new King or Platinum instead of a used classic. I found one I really liked online and it was grabbed within minutes. My friend just bought a new Bronco Raptor two weeks ago. From what I’m seeing, I don’t think the market is as bad as you want it to be.

 

[bassist]

Folks forget, home equity is worthless until the day you actually sell to a buyer for your desirable price. Likewise, just because Zillow says your home is worth $1M doesn't mean you are going to get that given the current market.

I doubt we are heading for a housing crisis style crash at any time soon given market fundamentals, but a correction to the tune of 10 to 20 percent is definitely possible (and from what I understand already taking place in certain markets like Austin, TX and most of Florida).

The correction has arguably happened already in some places, but the market is so thinly traded that most aren’t going to notice.

Which is a good thing, unless you are selling…unless you are then buying, which makes it sort of even out.

 

[bassist]

I owned a home in AZ doing the Great Recession, foreclosed as it went from $500k to $200k in no time. I let it go. I then owned a home in AZ for many years after that. Paid $76k for it and sold it for $315K during Covid. We moved cross country and decided on being more secluded and saving money. I am 56 years old now.

When it comes to wildly fluctuating values, nothing beats the “sand states” as they’re called.

 

[bassist]

My stock portfolio has never been better than it is right now. I planned to look for a nice, used F150 at the start of this year. With my investments having doubled within the past year I’m now actively shopping for a new King or Platinum instead of a used classic. I found one I really liked online and it was grabbed within minutes. My friend just bought a new Bronco Raptor two weeks ago. From what I’m seeing, I don’t think the market is as bad as you want it to be.

It’s a tale of two Americas.

If one is on the relatively affluent side, things are net better. If one is working class, the things that annoy the better off hit harder, but without the assets appreciation to make up for it.

 

[Reiningrl]

It’s a tale of two Americas.

If one is on the relatively affluent side, things are net better. If one is working class, the things that annoy the better off hit harder, but without the assets appreciation to make up for it.

You’ve assumed I’m affluent. I’ve been an administrative assistant for most of my career -definitely working class - living paycheck to paycheck. I’ve scrimped, saved and invested even when I’ve had little money for food that week. Strategic planning and no excuses pay off. Almost anyone can do it.

 

[Unfortuitous]

If I were shopping for a new bronco again, there are two things that would worry me about waiting.

One is that the chances of Ford making more manuals now with production cuts is slim imo, so what you see now is what is going to be available going forward, less the units that sell. (Manuals are hard to find, I had to fly 400 miles to pick up mine not long ago).

Second, lot rot is a real thing. New cars sitting 10 months plus outside without moving is not good for them, especially in harsh climates. Since we are just now heading into spring, the timing isn't as bad, but I would much rather spend a few extra K and get a new car that hasn't been sitting, for a long time, especially if they are uncovered, unprotected, and unmoved through harsh weather. If they are sheltered, that obviously is not an issue but dealers tend to store their overstock boxed in and out in the elements and leave them there for months.

 

[Poirike1]

I'd wait.

Ford dealers wanted to gouge back when I wanted to order in '22, the base went on indefinite hold, and nobody could tell me any real lead time if I ordered. Completely annoyed, I ordered my '23 JL from Granger well under list instead, and WELL under the price of theoretical marked up Broncos (and got it in 43 days). Immediately after, the prices on Jeeps kept rocketing upward, along with Bronco.

It's unsustainable, and the lots are showing it. Where pricing goes is anyone's guess, but I've heard of cuts coming on Jeeps. Ford has made my dream 2-door Bronco a $60K rig now, and I'm not seeing the value.

70k if you want a 2.7L..only one 2 door model has this.

 

[SHANUT]

Just my opinion but see what news you all have. With Stellantis rumoring massive MSRP cuts and 10's of thousands of new 2024 broncos still sitting on lots, I'm feeling I should just wait a few months to buy. They are NOT moving high cost vehicles right now, and it's only getting worse. I think we're seeing the collapse of the car market that was sure to happen after then insane high in the market a couple years ago. I'm already seeing high level badlands for 10 to 15k off (Have a quote IN HAND for a lux badlands hardtop sasquatch for $54,995 Right now). If Stellantis DOES slash MSRP's that much, everyone else is going to have to follow (Only diehard bronco lovers are going to buy a bronco when a similar jeep is $20,000 less) Thoughts?

They will be much cheaper this summer than they are now.

 

[11811]

I owned a home in AZ doing the Great Recession, foreclosed as it went from $500k to $200k in no time. I let it go.

You made good and paid off that promissory note that you signed to buy that home... right?

 

[C6ZZGT]

My condolences, ours is a club nobody should ever have to join.

You too ? I`m so sorry to hear that. Not a club I recommend anyone join.

 

[bassist]

You made good and paid off that promissory note that you signed to buy that home... right?

In some states there is recourse, and in others there is not.

Ultimately it’s a contract, and if one party fails to perform there’s a remedy - foreclosure. Also, it’s important to remember that the interest you pay includes the expected likelihood of default.

There are also alternative workouts that can be done, as it is sometimes better to modify the terms of the agreement than to exercise one’s remedies. If there is a short sale or deed in lieu, the servicer and investor both have to be on board.

At the end of the day, if someone was honest when they entered into the agreement, then what happens next is literally just business.

Happens all the time in the commercial real estate space, and in fact businesses create legal entities simply to hold each building so that the impact of a default is limited to the building itself. And lenders do not want to own office buildings where there is a default, because that means there are already issues with rents - so deals are restructured.

Defaulting on a mortgage or a car loan is a bad idea. But frankly as long as there is a contract in place with remedies and compensation associated with the risk of potential default, it’s a stretch to claim there is a moral aspect to it.

It’s different if you borrow from friends or family - but sophisticated financial institutions know the risks better than you do, and make money specifically by taking risk.

 

[tourproto]

If I had a quote for lux sas badlands with hard top for 55K I would take it.

Hell, I paid $53K for a non-SAS, high-pkg 4-door Badlands in March 2022. Assuming it is also a 4-door. paying $2K more for a LUX and SAS is a bargain... Why are you waiting???

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