Ford

[Beach_Bum]

Ford stock is up over 100% in the last year.

Are you trying to equivocate that it is a great stock to own? If so, that might be the Sharp-shooter fallacy by selecting the lowest it has been and ignoring it's performance over the long-term.

Look, I'm not going to be giving anyone stock investment advice. If people want to own Ford stock, great. Do it. Don't wait for it to drop 50 cent or a buck as if it will matter in the long run. Wake me in 20 years if it breaks $20/share.

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[Mickey21]

Where did you get me being offended? I’m actually having fun watching comments like yours while drinking a beer...congratulations on your successful career!!! Super awesome! Maybe you should work at ford and show them how it’s done? Maybe we’ll get our Broncos sooner with you knowing how it should be done?

See where it says possibly... Maybe less beer...

Thanks, worked hard and love my job!

Maybe I could have helped them, possibly, but honestly I have enough work with chip manufacturers in Austin.

I've gone on record many times about waiting for a Bronco. I could care less when it shows up, only that it does. Hardly the only vehicle I have, had, or will have. I work from home anyways, I can count on my hand how many times a week I leave the house since over a year ago. Perks of doing what I do and that successful job I told you about, thanks again for your acknowledgement!

Maybe you think because I respond, it means I have become bent, lol, yeah, not there from someone like you sport.

 

[mtap]

"Semi-Conductor chip shortage", LOL

Their "shortage" is self-inflicted, that is what happens when you don't order enough supply.

Yeah, that A) isnt what I said

That’s exactly what you said...

but hey i wouldn’t know anything, I’m not as smart as you...sport. I’ll just drink my beer maybe you need more beers

 

[Darforce]

Ford needs to start paying me interest on my $100. I'll have a sweet down payment by 2025.

Ha!! Ask your dealer for the 75cents

 

[ZackDanger]

About 5% of the allocations were given to priority orders. They will use the commodities to build those before moving on to the regular orders (it is not constrained by allocations, it forces someone out of one for every priority order). If not all, almost all will be built first. If a priority order was timestamped after us regular Joe's, every single person in that situation is being delayed by the time it takes to build those priority orders plus any subsequent delays due to commodities being restricted when used up by the priority orders. At a minimum a 5% production delay for early reservation holders and possibly much longer if someone would have been okay with a commodity but gets pushed into not being okay by 1/20th of the production being moved in front of them. Bottom line is that commodities used for priority orders will be unavailable for the early timestamp orders that would have ordinarily gotten them. Obviously the later the timestamp, the less the effect. As an example let's say the Lux is in half of the priority orders (1800 units as a made up giggle number) and Ford has commodities to build 2000 of them. Instead of 2000 early timestamp reservations getting produced, they can only make 200 of them, then there might be a period of weeks before they get parts again. That is 1800 people waiting an extra couple weeks plus the time to build the priority orders, maybe five weeks in total, also everyone after them might be bumped more time if they run short of lux parts again. It will be most noticed by the early timestamps as an extra percentage of wait time. Make no mistake, it will be a minor delay for some and much more for others, but the delay will be several weeks of the Summer season for sure. There will be people screwed out of a special vacation or event that would have been fine without the PO's

The thing to remember is that Ford’s production capacity is such that even if your order was delayed by the full 3,000 priority builds, that 5% delay is only a single week of production. Furthermore we already know that not all priority builds are being built first.

Let’s do a thought experiment.

Dealerships with 1-50 allocations got 1 priority order, 50+ got 2.

Hypothetical dealer A has 60 MY21 allocations. That’s 10 Broncos a month, or 2.5 Broncos a week in MY21.

If you were #1 in line before priority orders, you’d be a week 1 delivery. Under priority orders you’re a week 2 delivery.


Regarding the commodity availability. You’re absolutely right that these are finite supplies, and a tow hitch going to a priority is not going to someone else. Also, these are such moving targets that it’s impossible to say that this guy’s priority order is responsible for taking the last whatever. And again, we’re talking about huge numbers, in this case supplies of commodities.

As you get deeper into the order banks, these delays are actually less impactful, as all the shuffling would have occurred with orders before them. And there’s no compounding delays as a result… just some swaps of timestamp ranking.

And finally, I don’t know how anyone could have, at this point, scheduled a “special vacation” that some priority build is now robbing them of. That sounds like a straw man argument to me… there’s no way that anyone would have been able to anticipate when their Bronco was going to arrive… and if they tried to guess, and booked a vacation around their guess, the existence of priority orders is not what made that a ill informed idea.

$0.02

 

[North7]

I've resolved to be patient enough, with a Day 1 reservation, to wait until end of October. After that, it's pretty silly it's taking this long.

Patiently waiting until after the full-diaper VIPs and dealer employees get their priority builds. Fine. It's like a new restaurant's soft opening in which they only invite VIPs and tastemakers. Also patiently waiting until after the First Edition luxury-needers get their builds. After that, how about a regular fella who made an early reservation for a Base catches a break? Perhaps I am "entitled."

So your saying it's like when some executives get multi million dollar bonuses right before the company reports a negative event.

Or in this case, Ford puts the priority build order program into place right before they announce shut downs due to chip shortages.

Meanwhile, people begin to wonder, will I get my Bronco in 2023 or 2024.

 

[Razorbak86]

Ford Posts Highest Quarterly Net Income in Years

DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 4:21 PM ET 4/28/2021

Ford Posts Highest Quarterly Net Income in Years -- Update
Ford Motor Co. (F) posted $3.3 billion in net income -- its highest quarterly result in years -- but warned the financial toll from the continuing global computer-chip shortage will likely worsen.

Ford's bottom line, which was fueled by strong pricing in North America, reversed a $2 billion loss from a year earlier, when the Covid-19 pandemic froze North American production.

The company posted pretax first-quarter profit excluding one-time items of $4.8 billion, or 89 cents a share, easily surpassing the 22 cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by FactSet. The result included a $900 million noncash gain from Ford's investment in electric-truck maker Rivian Automotive LLC.

Revenue rose 6% to $36.2 billion.

Ford said the chip shortage will cut $2.5 billion from adjusted pretax profit this year, the high range of the $1 billion-to-$2.5-billion estimate it provided in February. The company said the lack of semiconductors will force it to cut second-quarter production in half, but it expects the situation to improve after June.

Ford finance chief John Lawler said a fire at a semiconductor supplier in Japan in March exacerbated a chip shortfall that had already hit auto makers hard at the start of the year.

"We now expect semiconductor shortages to get worse and bottom out" in the second quarter, he told reporters during a conference call.

Major auto makers since January have been forced to cut vehicle output and adjust production schedules to keep assembly lines running for more profitable models. Semiconductors used in electronic-vehicle controls are in short supply as surging global demand for smartphones, laptops and other electronics surges during the pandemic.

The supply problems are marring an otherwise favorable backdrop for Ford to accelerate a turnaround plan rolled out by Chief Executive Jim Farley. Pent-up demand for cars, federal stimulus and continued low interest rates have driven shoppers back to dealerships in recent months.

Mr. Farley took the top job in October, vowing to squeeze costs and fix nagging operational problems, including rising warranty costs and stumbles on high-profile vehicle launches. Ford said warranty costs during the first quarter were $400 million lower than the year-earlier period.

Ford in the first quarter managed to avoid cutting production of its biggest profit generator, the F-150 pickup truck. But the company has canceled multiple weeks of F-150 production in April because of the chip crunch and said last week that it won't resume full production until mid-May.

Research firm AutoForecast Solutions estimates that the chip shortage has cost Ford more than 35,000 units of F-150 production so far this year, with the bulk of those cuts coming in March and April. That would account for roughly 10% of F-150 production over that period at Ford's normal pace.

Mr. Lawler said Ford has set aside about 22,000 vehicles that were built without needed semiconductors and will equip them once supplies become available.

General Motors Co., which reports first-quarter results next week, has largely sidestepped production cuts for its big pickup trucks and SUVs, although it has reduced output on most other models in North America.

Write to Mike Colias at [email protected]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
04-28-211721ET
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

 

[Razorbak86]

Ford Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why the Stock Is Dropping. -- Barrons.com

DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 3:58 PM ET 4/28/2021

Ford Motor (F) earnings surprised to the upside again, reporting better than expected first-quarter profits. The result looks great, but the stock is down. The reason: The global semiconductor shortage is starting to hurt, causing Ford to reduced its full-year earnings guidance.

Ford managed to crush earnings expectations in the fourth quarter too. Pulling off that feat this time was a little tougher, though. The chip shortage, along with higher raw material costs, made life difficult for all auto makers. The shortage showed up in the numbers and the impact to the current quarter will be far bigger.

For the first quarter, Ford Motor(F) reported an adjusted profit of 89 cents a share from $36.2 billion in sales. Wall Street was looking for 22 cents in per-share earnings from about $36 billion in sales.

It's a huge earnings "beat," but shares are down about 3.3% in after-hours trading. Coming into the earnings release, Ford shares had risen about 42%, far better than comparable gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The semiconductor shortage hit Ford's free cash flow. That's one reason for concern. Ford burned through about $400 million in the quarter partly because it exited with more unfinished cars. That impact should resolve itself over the coming months as Ford ships vehicles to dealers. Retail car sales are booming in the U.S. and dealer inventories are low, contributing to rising new car prices and record-high used car prices.

Ford sells cars to dealers, not end consumers, so even though retail car sales rose quarter over quarter, Ford shipments fell about 6%. Revenue still rose 6% because Ford prioritized selling higher-end vehicles.

Overall, the company managed the impact of the chip shortage well in the first quarter, but it is getting more severe. Ford expects to lose 50% of its planned second-quarter production. Ford lost 17% of its expected production in the first quarter.

As a result, Ford expects to make about $6 billion in 2021 operating profit, down from its comparable initial guidance of about $7.6 billion.

Ford already said the shortage could hit earnings by $1 billion to $2.5 billion back in February. So the new guidance, while down, is in the range of expected outcomes. General Motors(GM) also called the chip shortage a billion- dollar headwind to 2021 earnings. GM included the headwind in its initial 2021 guidance.

That shortage wasn't even worse than initially expected is a bit of good news. Still, investors are more nervous about 2021 than they were before Ford released earnings.

The company hosts a conference call at 5 p.m. eastern time to discuss results.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
04-28-211658ET
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

 

[Razorbak86]

Ford says chip shortage to halve Q2 vehicle output, but could ease this summer

REUTERS 5:06 PM ET 4/28/2021

By Ben Klayman and Paul Lienert

DETROIT, April 28 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co(F) on Wednesday said it expects a global semiconductor shortage could ease this summer but may not be fully resolved until 2022, as the automaker reported a strong first-quarter profit but said the shortage may slash second-quarter production by half.

Ford said the ongoing chip shortage would cost it about $2.5 billion and about 1.1 million units of lost production in 2021.

The No. 2 U.S. automaker handily beat Wall Street's profit estimate for the quarter, earning 81 cents a share, compared with the consensus 21 cents, according to Refinitiv IBES data. In last year's first quarter, the company lost 50 cents a share.

Ford shares were down 2.9% in after-hours trade on Wednesday.

Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley told analysts: "There are more whitewater moments ahead for us that we have to navigate. The semiconductor shortage and the impact to production will get worse before it gets better. In fact, we believe our second quarter will be the trough for this year."

Chief Financial Officer John Lawler said Ford's outlook was driven largely by a factory fire suffered by Japanese chipmaker Renesas. The flow of chips from Renesas is expected to be restored in July, but the global shortage of automotive semiconductors may not be fully resolved until next year, Lawler said.

Ford said its net income of $3.3 billion was the best since 2011, and adjusted pre-tax profit was a record $4.8 billion, including a $900 million non-cash gain on its investment in Rivian, the electric vehicle start-up. Ford lost $2.0 billion in the first quarter of 2020.

The company said the chip shortage will slash full-year earnings before interest and taxes to $5.5 billion-$6.5 billion.

In February, CFO Lawler said the company was on course to earn $8 billion to $9 billion in adjusted EBIT.

Revenue in the quarter increased to $36.2 billion, from $34.3 billion a year earlier.

Ford was able to offset some of the impact of lost production in this year's quarter by boosting the average transaction price per vehicle sold to nearly $48,000, compared with just over $44,000 a year ago, according to research firm Edmunds.com.

Ford dealers were able to command higher prices because of chip-induced shortages of popular models, such as the best-selling F-150 pickup.

Lawler said Ford in the future may stick with leaner inventories of F-150 and other models "because it's a better way to run our business."

Overseas, Ford reported revenue in Europe up 13% to $7.1 billion, and $341 million in pre-tax profit, reversing a year-ago loss.

Revenue climbed 39% to $800 million in China, where Ford narrowed its loss to $15 million, compared with a loss of $241 million a year earlier. (Reporting by Paul Lienert and Ben Klayman in Detroit; Editing by Dan Grebler)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions - https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

 

[North7]

The only part I saw applicable to the Bronco...

"and stumbles on high-profile vehicle launches"

Stumbles, is that management talk for screw-ups?

 

[DeltaBravo]

Time to buy Ford stock

 

[vrtical]

Anyone got some extra chips?

 

[Chief1301]

Please. Please. Please. No BMW.

BMW = bitching, moaning, whining

Nah..BMW=Big-Money-Waste!

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