Coronovirus discussions

[Jook13]

There is merit to avoiding many persons becoming sick at once from an illness that could for a time overwhelm some medical treatment centers. But if it holds true, 0.36% lethality is significant less than some earlier estimates. We need to be asking hard questions about handling this thing going forward. And Ford is not going to be selling new Broncos to citizens who are too paralyzed by fear to leave their homes (a few of my neighbors). Not to mention vehicle production and supply chain disruption. How long will (and should) we have this disruption? Will flatten the curve transform into save every person, and if so how do we deal with that pandora's box? What illness and which persons deserve saving?

Everyone already seems to have moved past flatten the curve. The goal post has been moved ....

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[RupertH]

Everyone already seems to have moved past flatten the curve. The goal post has been moved ....

No, they haven't- we are still in 'flatten' mode, even if it looks like we 'made it' through. See below...

There is merit to avoiding many persons becoming sick at once from an illness that could for a time overwhelm some medical treatment centers. But if it holds true, 0.36% lethality is significant less than some earlier estimates. We need to be asking hard questions about handling this thing going forward. And Ford is not going to be selling new Broncos to citizens who are too paralyzed by fear to leave their homes (a few of my neighbors). Not to mention vehicle production and supply chain disruption. How long will (and should) we have this disruption? Will flatten the curve transform into save every person, and if so how do we deal with that pandora's box? What illness and which persons deserve saving?

There are several factors that lead to a difference between a typical influenza year and a bad year (like Bird, Swine, etc.) and other similar communicable diseases like Corona (SARS, MERS, etc.). The core factors are: R0, herd immunity, and lethality are the big 3, but incubation and contagion periods and capacity play an integral role in the mix and tend to be exponential factors rather than just a straight multiplier. Low R0 and low immunity can combine to cause capacity issues, as can high lethality rates or moderate lethality rates, with longer contagious periods.

So, influenza- even a more lethal variant- will not always peg the meter, due to how they are treated. Because most cases are treated with meds, rest, and fluids; and only the most grave cases involve hospitalization, capacity to treat doesn't become a major issue. Additionally, the infection vectors are well understood, and between the annual vaccine and the similarities to other strains, there's some hope of herd immunity that helps increase the R0 by making the virus more difficult to spread. Also helping, are shorter incubation and contagion periods, making tracing the virus back easer, and less opportunity to pass it along.

However, with something like COVID-19, we have a more pernicious threat. The R0 is very low, the incubation period tends to be long, the contagion period tends to be long (BONUS! there're also high levels of asymptomatic-carriers), there's little herd immunity, and while the lethality is moderate, the impact on capacity is huge, because the critical cases require substantial limited resources to treat. This is borne out in the data when you compare death rates with new cases. As cases in a given area grew, death rates surged faster. NYC and Washington state really show this if you look inside the numbers They ran up against limitations inherent in the system, and began to see massive death rates, while the rest of the country had far fewer deaths, causing a much less stark overall picture of things.

So, to answer your question, it is NOT a Pandora's box. Illnesses that have the potential to overwhelm the system and cause death and destruction get treated differently. The flu is actually an example of that! There are very few diseases that have such a low lethality that we have a vaccine for, AND said vaccine is usually covered by heath insurance! I would argue that the millions of dollars spent annually on this is far outside the norm for preventative medicine, and yet, here we are! Why? Because of the factors above- a nudge in the herd immunity saves both overall costs and limits concerns for capacity issues. Even with it's relatively low impact, without an annual vaccine, the R0 would drop, and the resulting demand for Z-paks and nebulizers would quickly surpass capacity, pushing the lethality higher. How much higher would depend on several factors, but the point is, we make these decisions all the time; and your suggestion that we are suddenly changing how we treat illness and deciding who lives and dies has changed is incorrect.

My opinion: we should focus on getting more testing done. Partly, to better track the infection front, but especially to parse out our immune population and get them back to work ASAP!

 

[securitysix]

My opinion: we should focus on getting more testing done. Partly, to better track the infection front, but especially to parse out our immune population and get them back to work ASAP!

I agree with this, but we also have no idea how long immunity lasts.

We need an antibody test, and we need a way to apply that antibody test to people who are known to have been recovered from COVID-19 for various timeframes.

If the antibodies several years, then a vaccine would be good, but less important as more people get infected naturally and recover.

If the antibodies only last a few months, development of a vaccine becomes more important.

 

[BuckWildOffRoad]

To recap this thread: China sucks, virus bad, stay home if you are non essential, support local business if able. When this is all over, have normal a med-small supply of essential goods for peace of mind of this happens again in the fall....

There is definitely constitutional infringements happening and I warn greatly against allowing this to be forced. The constitution hasn't changed and is not null and void in a pandemic...

I definitely want everyone to remain safe and everyone else should also. I have and still feel that the hysteria sensationalized by the media has been inaccurate and irresponsible.

People wearing masks while they pickup a carton of cigarettes? Wearing gloves while shopping, but still touching your phone and belongings that you touch after taking off the gloves? Lol.

My current hospital has been dead, most hospitals are. I have nurse friends in many states and they are mostly all reporting the same.

 

[BuckWildOffRoad]

I would also like to add, that despite me feeling that this is over blown, you should always look after your neighbors ?. We are the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. ??

I am leaving my currently non-impacted hospital to be in a high need hospital. I will be going for 13wks, and my precious family will not be going with me. This is because I will always put my family first, and will not risk infecting my 10month old or my wife. I am exposed whether or not I am at a local hospital or one 2k miles away. The difference is I cannot expose my family if I don't come home. Makes me sick knowing i won't see my family for over 3 months, that I will miss my dauhters first birthday, my wife's birthday, our anniversary, friends, summer on the lake, etc. But again, even though I feel this is overblown, I will never risk others for my selfish reasons.

 

[guernsej]

For anyone interested in helping get back to normal, consider volunteering

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...antify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection

@indio22 @Dads_bronze_bronco - lot's of good discussion to be had regarding CFR vs IFR and where we're headed in terms of predicted/actual outcomes. Given the relatively high percentage of asymptomatic cases I think most populations will see CFR between 2-8% and IFR around 0.4-1% with outliers above that depending on distribution of age and prevalence of underlying conditions. Many different factors at play and tons of new information coming out daily.

https://reason.com/2020/04/12/offic...-of-total-infections-a-new-analysis-suggests/

Until population antibody studies start cranking out results, I personally think ships like Diamond Princess and USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT offer the best insight into actual IFR given they're essentially closed systems with known population demographics and comprehensive testing.

@Jomo using the flu as a reference point can be useful but also misleading. Populations are (generally) far more susceptible to novel vs endemic diseases such as influenza - even if COVID ends up around 4 times deadlier and similarly contagious to seasonal influenza, without baseline immunity or vaccinations there is a MUCH, MUCH larger vulnerable population. Viruses like COVID and novel influenza with relatively high basic reproduction numbers are absolutely capable of infecting a third of the population or more if the effective reproduction number is not reduced.

The national pandemic strategy is specifically designed to stop novel influenza because it's fucking deadly without immunity and vaccinations.

https://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/...earch-methods/1a-epidemiology/epidemic-theory
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/national-strategy/index.html

@Jook13 - you're being unhelpful again, no one is moving goalposts

 

[guernsej]

In comparison, 1918 Spanish flu is estimated at 2.6%.

Keep in mind Spanish Flu occurred at a time when millions of young healthy adults were warring in the trenches, sanitation was woefully lacking around the world, patient record keeping was essentially non-existent, proper medical care was rarely available, and treatment frequently involved prescribing a lethal dose of aspirin. Estimates for the Spanish Flu are really only useful in demonstrating that novel influenza pandemics are super not good.

Regardless going forward, a more targeted approach should be considered, aimed at the particularly vulnerable segments of the population, and based on risk analyses of areas.

Absolutely.

 

[RupertH]

To recap this thread: China sucks, virus bad, stay home if you are non essential, support local business if able. When this is all over, have normal a med-small supply of essential goods for peace of mind of this happens again in the fall....

There is definitely constitutional infringements happening and I warn greatly against allowing this to be forced. The constitution hasn't changed and is not null and void in a pandemic...

I definitely want everyone to remain safe and everyone else should also. I have and still feel that the hysteria sensationalized by the media has been inaccurate and irresponsible.

People wearing masks while they pickup a carton of cigarettes? Wearing gloves while shopping, but still touching your phone and belongings that you touch after taking off the gloves? Lol.

My current hospital has been dead, most hospitals are. I have nurse friends in many states and they are mostly all reporting the same.

I'm genuinely curious as to these constitutional infringements you which you speak... I suspect you have no concrete examples. Unless you ALSO consider it a violation of your rights for the Fire Dept to prevent you from entering your business or home while it's on fire.

To recap, you believe the media has overblown things; yet acknowledge that average people clearly don't understand how to protect themselves properly or how significant the threat can be in areas that aren't 'mostly' reporting nothing significant AND yet are volunteering to support efforts because the not 'mostly' NBD turns out to not be NBD? (later post, good on you by the way!) About half the mask wearers I've seen out there have been wearing them UNDER their nose. The average person isn't very bright, which is part of the reason the media seems to need to headline the big death numbers and such. Partly because it sells (I worked in TV for a few years, it's painful sometimes!) but also because they can't get the point across to the slobbering majority of their viewers.

People are arguing on another site that Jeep top-down driving is too great a risk. Someone might cough in another car, and the exhaled air might hit you, and you might get COVID-19.

A risk? Yes. A significant risk? Probably not. An attempted reductio ad absurdum? Almost guaranteed.

I would also like to add, that despite me feeling that this is over blown, you should always look after your neighbors ?. We are the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. ??

I am leaving my currently non-impacted hospital to be in a high need hospital. I will be going for 13wks, and my precious family will not be going with me. This is because I will always put my family first, and will not risk infecting my 10month old or my wife.

Again, I just can't square the curve between these two statements, BUT I'm humbled that you're putting yourself in harm's way for the greater good. Makes me feel good to be a 'MERICAn

Would authorities have essentially shut down the country with shelter in place, had they known 0.37%? That is a legit question. Maybe not. Or at least not to the extent it has been done. Regardless going forward, a more targeted approach should be considered, aimed at the particularly vulnerable segments of the population, and based on risk analyses of areas.

I think the harder question to answer is what would the rate be if we hadn't shut down the country? All indications point toward a massive wave of sickness that would probably rival 1918- shortages of everything needed, people dying in cots in school gyms, the whole show. Sadly, this is always the result of any major catastrophe. Deal with it even marginally well and under-run the estimates? You're all just overreacting. Deal with it poorly and prove the estimates correct? Why didn't you scream louder, if you knew this would happen?!? Not a job I'd want...

My son in college works at a grocery store. So all these nuts can stock up on toilet paper and liquor. Then "shelter in place", engaging in boozing, glutton, boozing, and I guess wiping their backsides. A few of my FB friends of privilege and means, started complaining about how their food deliveries were not up to par. I let loose - not sure if they are my FB friends anymore, lol.

My son could have blown off working at the store - we don't need the money. I could have blown off volunteering at the homeless shelter. We could be sheltered in our house not even answering the front door like a few neighbors. We don't roll that way.

I agree those who have a more reasonable ability to assess risk, and are able to deal with fear, should help those who don't have such qualities (even those people who don't deserve the help.)

Is this what the kids call a flex? Or is it a humblebrag? Possibly both? While your rich friends and no need to work aside, there's a difference between assessing risk and fear- also for the record, fearlessness!=bravery. The average person's risk of infection is moderate, given basic precautions, and hiding isn't the answer, but neither is bravely recklessly sallying forth as if there is no threat. You are correct, those of us who have the ability to assess risk (from what I've seen probably not you) should help those who can't. That becomes more difficult, when there are so many spreading misinformation (I see two groups of fearmongerers- the 'COVID will kill us all!' group and the 'open the economy before we all die!' group. Neither is helpful. Neither is saying that anyone running around yelling 'fake news!' anytime the media says, well, anything that doesn't jive with your particular view on life. (I'm looking at everyone- neither side has cornered the market on BS)

I'm not event going to dive into the subject of who you feel doesn't deserve help, just staple the STD pamphlet through the condom and toss it to the next stupid slut in line...

 

[BuckWildOffRoad]

I'm genuinely curious as to these constitutional infringements you which you speak... I suspect you have no concrete examples. Unless you ALSO consider it a violation of your rights for the Fire Dept to prevent you from entering your business or home while it's on fire.

To recap, you believe the media has overblown things; yet acknowledge that average people clearly don't understand how to protect themselves properly or how significant the threat can be in areas that aren't 'mostly' reporting nothing significant AND yet are volunteering to support efforts because the not 'mostly' NBD turns out to not be NBD? (later post, good on you by the way!) About half the mask wearers I've seen out there have been wearing them UNDER their nose. The average person isn't very bright, which is part of the reason the media seems to need to headline the big death numbers and such. Partly because it sells (I worked in TV for a few years, it's painful sometimes!) but also because they can't get the point across to the slobbering majority of their viewers.

Again, I just can't square the curve between these two statements, BUT I'm humbled that you're putting yourself in harm's way for the greater good. Makes me feel good to be a 'MERICAn

Having spent many years on the fire department, generally the reason to put out fires is to protect the surrounding structures/wildland. The original structure on fire is a loss anyways, with few exceptions. When receiving medical care you may absolutely deny help, even if it means you will die...

The First Amendment has ALREADY been infringed upon during Easter church gatherings when the local government banned drive through church services. This was however ruled to be an infringement by a judge already. My point is that the government will try (maybe city, states, or federal), that is why we should remain alert to what is going on and not just bend over because we are in a pandemic. Our rights are still important, maybe more now than ever.

The problem with media causing mass panic is that it only causes mass panic... You gave a perfect example. Even though people are panicked enough to wear a mask, they still aren't protecting themselves.. so why have panic in the first place? I still believe the media to be overblown, no doubt. That's what they do. Reporting a video from Italy as a New York hospital, just because it looked intense? Liars... and thats only when you catch them...

The hospital that I am going to, is currently very slow, they fear the rush is actually going to be non-sick people that are just scared. The problem is that this will clog the ER (where I work) and the true emergencies (heart attacks, strokes, MVCs, etc) they are still happening.

Also, I come home on a regular day and strip down before I come inside and go straight to the shower. I did this long before COVID. But I am quarantining because I can and will always protect my family. Thats why I said that everyone should be doing whatever they can to protect their family and neighbors. There are plenty of "what if's" that I don't care to find out. What if my baby or wife were part of the 0.3% who are serious/die? I never said not to be careful or smart, I just said it is overblown by the media. I don't want panicked people to make more panicked, irrational decisions. That's all.

 

[RupertH]

Having spent many years on the fire department, generally the reason to put out fires is to protect the surrounding structures/wildland. The original structure on fire is a loss anyways, with few exceptions. When receiving medical care you may absolutely deny help, even if it means you will die...

The First Amendment has ALREADY been infringed upon during Easter church gatherings when the local government banned drive through church services. This was however ruled to be an infringement by a judge already. My point is that the government will try (maybe city, states, or federal), that is why we should remain alert to what is going on and not just bend over because we are in a pandemic. Our rights are still important, maybe more now than ever.

Again, the FD would stop you if you tried to go into the burning building for non-lifesaving reasons.

In theory, you have the right to do it, but then the 1st responders would be on the hook to rescue you, so there's a potential issue that the courts have clearly decided in favor of that restriction NOT being an infringement. In the same way that shouting "Fire!" in a crowded theater has been upheld as not protected speech, the same is true of behavior that could reasonably harm others. Hence, those weirdos running through grocery stores licking produce are not free-speech activists, they are criminals.

You are right to be concerned however in this case- clearly the Constitution is being abused by this judge! The 1st Amendment states, "Congress shall make no law...", that extends to the non-lifesaving interactions with some space god during a pandemic. Aside from an impact to the profits of said space god's self-appointed talent agents, there's not a good reason to allow those gatherings anymore than the same argument for any other performer- why should they be treated differently?

I'm all for treating everyone equally- it sounds like @Jook13 (sorry dude- I hope things work out in the long run!) could see his livelihood running down the tubes because of this , why should purveyors of religiosity be any different just because their version of Black Friday is Easter Sunday?

 

[BuckWildOffRoad]

Again, the FD would stop you if you tried to go into the burning building for non-lifesaving reasons.

In theory, you have the right to do it, but then the 1st responders would be on the hook to rescue you, so there's a potential issue that the courts have clearly decided in favor of that restriction NOT being an infringement. In the same way that shouting "Fire!" in a crowded theater has been upheld as not protected speech, the same is true of behavior that could reasonably harm others. Hence, those weirdos running through grocery stores licking produce are not free-speech activists, they are criminals.

You are right to be concerned however in this case- clearly the Constitution is being abused by this judge! The 1st Amendment states, "Congress shall make no law...", that extends to the non-lifesaving interactions with some space god during a pandemic. Aside from an impact to the profits of said space god's self-appointed talent agents, there's not a good reason to allow those gatherings anymore than the same argument for any other performer- why should they be treated differently?

I'm all for treating everyone equally- it sounds like @Jook13 (sorry dude- I hope things work out in the long run!) could see his livelihood running down the tubes because of this , why should purveyors of religiosity be any different just because their version of Black Friday is Easter Sunday?

We can agree to disagree, I have no problems with you or anyone on this forum. My reasoning and logic are not the same as your reasoning and logic, but thats totally fine. I wish you and everyone else the best, seriously.

 

[guernsej]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...mies-after-coronavirus-shutdown-idUSKCN21V185

 

[vintage]

 

[JimmyDean]

Why do you think there needs to be a vaccine? As it sits and I believe it will be lower when it ends..the new death estimate is 60,000.. That is regular seasonal flu numbers, I don't think it will get over 40,000. Califonia locked in 40 million people for a whole 600 deaths...seriously? That's idiotic ..we in no way can save everyone ..people die. If the economy doesn't come back soon, it's a goner and way more destructive than the Coronavirus. The fastest vaccine ever took 4 years.. When we had the Swine Flu in 2009 ..we had 1 million people infected and 100,000 people died ..no vaccine, no shut down , no panic...wonder why.?...hmmmm... The bottom line is Hydroxychloroquine, Zpac and zinc are crushing Coronavirus, a brand new 1000 patient study revealed incredible results with over 970 patients that had no symptoms within 3 days of taking the medication. At this point that is a game changer.

How're those numbers working out for you now? We'll be at 60k this week, and may not have hit the peak yet. And we also know, have admitted, that these are not the complete numbers, because people died before being tested. Hell, some states, like the CA you talked about, are going to exhume and do autopsies all the way back to december. Also, 60k flu deaths a year is considered a very bad year, and we were lucky to have missed the most of flu season on this thing, it would've been alot worse if it had started spreading in sep/oct time frame instead of feb/mar. And estimates from CDC put 2-3million infected, as of right now.

And, Z-pacs, zinc, and hydrobullshit have all proven to be completely, and utterly, ineffective. Anyone who even though that a Zpac would be effective against a virus needs to give up their human card, because you do not have a friggen brain. Zpac is an anti-biotic. Virus =/= bacteria. in no way, shape, or form would any anti-biotic help vs a virus. But, that's 1st grade knowledge there, did you pass that grade?

And then there is hydrobullshit. Now, I've been mostly a supporter of our commander in chief since day 1. But after the last 4 months? to hell with that. The guy had invested at the start in this hydro-bullshit manufacturer, then started touting up its miracles to bump its stock so he makes money, despite the fact that the fatality rate of the drug itself is worse than this disease (but better than those it is designed to treat), and of there being zero to little evidence that it helped at all.

The only two saving graces right now are that the summer is upon us, and temp+humidity has shown to decrease the R0, and also that the R0 was fairly low (~3), so with a decent enough number of people obeying stay at home, and wearing masks, the R0 has dropped to about 1.2, which is a very slow, gradual growth. With heat and humidity increasing, we should be seeing the R0 drop below 1 within the next week or two. And that means a decease in cases for the next 5 months. until temps drop, everyone has forgotten about this shit, and then it hits again with an R0~3, but with 10-20k active cases (vs the few hundred thousand at the moment), and it is back into the 100s of thousands within 2 weeks before anyone reacts.

Oh, then lets talk about fucking immunity? Zero previous corona-virus's have had a complete immunity, ever. And zero have had a partial immunity that lasts beyond 2 years. So, why is this one going to be different? Herd immunity may not even work with this thing, or not very effectively, just like it doesn't with the common cold (which a few of the virus' that cause that are corona-virus). Without a vaccine, we are looking at a perennial disease with a >0.1% fatality rate. Yeah, 0.1%sounds really small. If 1/3rd of the population catches this every year, similar to other endemic diseases without complete vaccines (flu when the vaccine misses the target, common colds, etc) then that is 100k dead, per year. This would put it at number 5 for highest causes of death per year in the U.S., and this is some conservative numbers I'm spouting. But right now, we have seen a few days where this is the leading cause of death with such things as cancer, heart disease, injuries, averaged out over the year.

If the final tally on the fatality rate even remotely approaches 1%, you are talking 1 million plus dead a year, the highest cause of death by a factor of 2.

So yeah, no big fucking deal.

Oh, right, it mostly only effects old folks, right? I'm 38, overweight but not obese, an alcohlic, but no liver disease yet, no major medical issues. I am,according to the numbers, completely safe. I have less than a 0.03% chance of dying from this thing. But, I love my parents. They aren't as young as me (imagine that...), and are not as in good of health, obese, alcoholics with heart issues...their chances approach 5-7% for their age range. again, much better than not. If you had a 5-7% chance of dying every time you drove your truck, would you still drive every day?

So yeah, get a clue. There are some serious implications on this virus, some of it may get better once we have a better understanding, but as of where things sit, and look, right now, this is not a good prognosis unless we actively curtail activities that will lead to it's spread.

 

[Nickp]

One thing we also don’t know with this is if there are further effects down the road. Like how you can get shingles from the chicken pox, there could easily be something similar with this virus.

I just am absolutely astounded that the same people who think that this virus was manufactured in a Chinese bio weapon facility are the same ones saying we need to re open and it’s all being blown out of proportion. The amount of mental gymnastics that takes...

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