66.75% final order conversion rate for 2021 Bronco

[RedDawg]

Damn it!!! MY22

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[Atomicdog]

For sure it's a weird relationship between dealers and Ford. And you can guarantee there will be heavy ADM on the cancellations.

But converting 20% of fake orders or orders without consent, and then expecting the other 80% to all go through with purchase is asking for trouble.

I'm sure there's some dealer funny business going on - but will it be 20% by design, doubtful.

I agree that it wouldn’t be 20% by design. It would be 20% minus their usual order cancellation rate with a buffer. The dealer makes money off the ADM, drives traffic to their dealership and if the ADM is too much for the customer: “No problem! We have these Bronco Sports which is just a smaller version and whoah... this is is $500 off MSRP if you drive it away today!”
I’m not upset by any of this, it’s just fun thinking about and analyzing.

 

[P52Ranch]

Don't know, just fun info for killing time at this point, this number isn't useful for allocation either.

Thanks for keeping us focused on the important things in life.

Like the burning question: Which of the deadly sins are the most deadly to our builds? And the follow up question of how many of each of those constrained commodities will be available for 2021 builds?

 

[BroncoJay]

I still see A bunch of order holders canceling come May when Ford gives someone a 12-18 month build time, especially early July reservation holders ....

people will drop because ....well because people hate wait times...

 

[MorgansRun]

I still see A bunch of order holders canceling come May when Ford gives someone a 12-18 month build time, especially early July reservation holders ....

people will drop because ....well because people hate wait times...

Yeah, I'm hoping for a Q1 2022 timeframe in May (I know, I know that is probably unlikely). But then it'll be interesting to see if it gets pulled forward after the first wave or two of cancellations. I just have to keep reminding myself to be patient.

 

[GOODVBZ]

Upsetting knowing that a lot of those are from fraudulent conversions. More upsetting knowing that the ordering system is too much of a shitshow for Ford to go back and punish those shady dealerships

 

[Frankie]

20% if they were smart.

Nah, they do 100% until they get their first warning strike and then 19.9% every month afterward.

 

[LeshMcG]

I have no one else to blame but myself for having a late reservation, but damn my car might not make it until next year. My husband has resorted to fixing problems himself since he doesn't want to put anymore money into it. I have zero confidence in his abilities under the hood of a car. It would figure that the first car that I've liked in 16 years would have a massive waiting period.

 

[Frankie]

For sure it's a weird relationship between dealers and Ford. And you can guarantee there will be heavy ADM on the cancellations.

But converting 20% of fake orders or orders without consent, and then expecting the other 80% to all go through with purchase is asking for trouble.

I'm sure there's some dealer funny business going on - but will it be 20% by design, doubtful.

Ford created a system that is the worst of both worlds, combining the impersonal and poor communication aspects of online ordering with the sleaziness, incompetence, and ignorance aspects of the dealership model.

 

[BlueBronco]

I don't know why everyone so fixated on the 20%, I don't see it as a problem, unless commodities are so bad we can't get anything anyone really wants, I'd be shocked to see many on new Ford dealers lots.

But converting 20% of fake orders or orders without consent, and then expecting the other 80% to all go through with purchase is asking for trouble.

I'm sure there's some dealer funny business going on - but will it be 20% by design, doubtful.

Agreed and agreed. I don't get the fixation either, seems like a lot of people here give dealership management way to much credit and akin them to evil geniuses (no offense XC). If you look at a dealerships allotment as a whole, yeah 20% is a big number. But if you break it down by month (which is what Ford said they will be watching) it is not a big number and gets more difficult to control. (ie, if a dealer gets 20 Broncos a month, only 3 can go to "other but reservation holder" and the 4th gets him kicked in the nuts and penalized). That's a lot of risk to manage for not that big of a reward (what, maybe a $5k ADM?).

The other point being missed is that the 66% percentage is conversion and not orders. The actual number of orders being placed and built is going to be (substantially?) lower.

 

[XCR440]

The cancelled orders that dealers get their hands on will still be built in roughly timestamp order as if there is a real customer waiting on it, so it is not like the dealers are going to get a ton of Broncos before the early res holders get theirs. There may be a few weird cases but I would guess that most cancellations would be the ones placed after the first few order days, made by more casual Bronco customers, rather than the enthusiastic ones. These "20%" Broncos will be showing up late in year I think. There will also be dealers who sell their mannequins earlier than they should at a big profit.

I don't think you'll see any Mannequins for sale (other than someone who forgets the rules or didn't read the sign up sheet). Punishment is too severe, you'd loose more money than you'd make on it.

 

[mmorgan]

So, about what I expected. If people weren’t going to order they would have cancelled their reservation and got their $100 back. Most people still in the hopper intended to order. Of course a certain number were people who just didn’t pay attention or forgot and the dealers took advantage to convert theirs for their lots.

This probably translates to at least 133,000 orders. The 190k reservation number was released quite a while ago, and it would be conservative to say they only added 10k more to go over 200,000 reservations.

It’ll be a long wait at most dealers if you weren’t a day 1 or day 2 reservation.

That really makes a late October reservation holder take a deep breath. 50,000 units in 2021, 70,000 units later in 2022 could mean a September 2022 deliver.

 

[Mdeamon]

How many of these were dealerships converting orders without the customer's consent?

My dealer convert my reservation 2 days before the end of the deadlinewithout my consent. He did not care if I buy it or not

 

[Broncolli]

And they will try to get 19% just so they can have broncos on the lots. Agreed it's BS they will have marked up lot units before all reservations are filled, but since it's a bit of an honor system and there is little honor left in this country that's the hand we're dealt.

and they get to pick the ones with the earliest reservation time too, so they could eat up the 2.7's and 35"er's first

 

[Vigor]

I have no one else to blame but myself for having a late reservation, but damn my car might not make it until next year. My husband has resorted to fixing problems himself since he doesn't want to put anymore money into it. I have zero confidence in his abilities under the hood of a car. It would figure that the first car that I've liked in 16 years would have a massive waiting period.

I laugh because my SO has 0 confidence in my ability to fix a car as well

But hey I've demonstrated I can change a tire

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