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John Auer

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Sure. Where are you going to get all of the electricity to power them? Oil?
Nukes? Exciting new technology being developed in that area. Who knows? The free market will always come up with a solution, (good or bad).
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John Auer

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Love that car! I had 3 of them, all black. Cops used to wave at me thinking I was unmarked car.
 

John Auer

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yeah I hope so but don't UNDERSTIMATE the ABSOLUTE POWER of the oil cartel and the politicians (Ours and other countries). Oil sets global prices of everything. You cant just assume they will go away cuz of better tech.
The oil companies are very powerful, but they’re not just “oil companies.” They are in the energy generation and distribution business, and they’re working on controlling where that energy comes from and how it gets distributed. They’re not going to give up control without a fight. Wars have been fought over oil, let’s hope the same doesn’t happen over rare earth minerals.
 

John Auer

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I know I know but reality points in another direction. It will be SLOW my friend.
We’ll see! These next few years are going to be interesting, to say the least!
 

John Auer

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If you charge at home, it’s definitely a huge savings even without the panels. Even in the most expensive per kWh areas. Even more so where most average rubes live
The early adopters mostly live in single family dwellings and will charge overnight at home. The multiple family dwellers will primarily have to charge at public charging stations. Once charge times are reduced to 10 minutes or less, the ICE is toast.
 

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John Auer

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Everyone arguing about ICE or EV is three steps behind the auto industry. Manufacturers are reconfiguring to become massive fleet sales companies with vehicles targeted to companies who will take over a very large percentage of daily commute, around town, errand and mall running, and even city-to-city and cross country driving. The vehicles you own will be your toys, your extravagances, tools for your hobbies and your work.

My daily driver since 2018 is a Waymo autonomous vehicle as a beta tester. My family of five beta tested, and now these vehicles are available to us as easily and cheaper than an Uber from our Waymo app.

I can take a Chrysler Pacifica hybrid or a Jaguar I-pace. Soon will be Land Rovers, and they have Lexus SUVs and Toyota Prius’. These vehicles will run all day and all night, returning to Service bays automatically for gas or charging or service or cleaning as needed, and be swapped out probably annually like iPhones with newer and better tech and efficiency. Parking lots will be less full of useless, stationary vehicles. Land will be reclaimed. Companies will ask for fleets based on whatever form of vehicle and energy is most efficient and useful to their customers. Three car garages will be converted to one or two cars for the family vehicle plus an exorcise room or storage.

The Bronco will be my “smiles per mile” vehicle.
I couldn’t agree with you more. Those that say, “that’ll never happen,” have got their head in the sand. I’ll go one step further, it may not happen in my lifetime, but eventually, human driven cars will be banned from public roads, just like horses were. When people say they’re afraid of getting in a car driven by a computer, I say they should be more worried about drunk drivers or those drivers while texting. Thirty to forty thousand people are killed in automobile crashes every year, yet no one seems to care. A self driving car runs over a squirrel and it’s front page news. The future is bright. I can’t wait to see autonomous flying cars!
 

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Not to mention supply side econ says gas would drop since they have no where else to sell it. If nobody wants it the price drops....
You left part of the equation out, less demand = less production, to pay for the multi-billion dollar refineries the cost per gallon goes up.
 
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As I’ve said on another post, none of us has a crystal ball, but I think the change to EV adoption is going to come sooner than we think. Solid state batteries show tremendous promise and may only be a couple years away. Supposedly, they can go 500 to 1000 miles between charges. Also, there are chargers in development that can charge a battery to 100% in under 10 minutes. Those two possibilities are game changers. I agree, the technology has a ways to go before it’s commercially viable. I just think it’s a few years away, not decades. We live in exciting times! 😎
May only be a couple years away, they said...

Widespread adoption, they said...

Cost effective, they said...

That was Fuel Cells in the 90's, seen any around lately?

(History here...)
 
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John Auer

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May only be a couple years away, they said...

Widespread adoption, they said...

Cost effective, they said...

That was Fuel Cells in the 90's, seen any around lately?
OEM’s are spending billions each to bring EV’s to market. I don’t remember anyone spending anywhere near this amount on fuel cells. Lately, Toyota pretty much threw in the towel on FC’s and is spending heavily on EV’s. I’m not a gambler but my money is on EV’s short term and AV’s long term. We’ll see.
 

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Great conversations talking about electric and yes change is upon us but maybe not as fast as some may think. There was an article written 3-4 months ago and damn can’t find it to share but it was about the cycle of car purchases. The article shared numbers of the slow yes slow electric vehicle market penetration. Meaning how long it will take for electric vehicles to be a good percentage of vehicles on the road. The article showed how the average person now keeps their vehicle 11-12 years which using those numbers it would take many many years for electric to become the main vehicles on the roads. The estimates are possible 7% of electric vehicles in the markets by 2030-2033. And shows it’s really 2050 before the electric vehicle would possibly be the main transportation at best. And something many are not reading is the so called banning of ICE vehicles sales is NEW vehicles not existing vehicles. Meaning people think the ICE vehicle will be banned 10-15 years from now. No the message is no NEW ICE vehicles can be sold. Manufacturers will probably push these mandates out further as time progresses should they be able to meet stringent EPA mandates. And look at the likes of Porsche working with Synthetic fuels that are Carbon Free. Todays technology works at warp speeds in comparison to 100 years ago. The odds are greater than ever someone will figure out ICE vehicles will advance to Carbon Free technology. It’s already happening and I feel it will continue to gain momentum. The Green Agenda is good and bad being a lot of False information is being pushed to accomplish a narrative to enrich the select few which in the end could actually do more harm than Good😎
 

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I would not base my decision on the future of fuels. It’s smoke and mirrors the world Governments live off taxation of motor fuels. It will be a minimum of 25-30 years if even then to be gasoline free. The mandates for stop selling new ICE vehicles is still another 10-15 years away. If your buying your last vehicle for ever than whatever but the reality is the future is not even owning your own vehicle. A driverless vehicle will show up and you use it than it goes away. I truly believe the Drones are the next faze in our lifetime.
Nailed it!! From an investor viewpoint, don't count out gasoline anytime soon. Those in the know are looking out to 2050 before any serious decrease in gas sales will occur. Gas tax increases? Possible in some states but not on a Federal level. Buy your gas guzzler and enjoy!! Maybe 10-20 years from now I would think twice, but no concern today. Note one mans guzzler in another imporvement (Tundra gets under 16mpg even on highway).
 

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Taking delivery of my 2DR 2021 Ford Bronco, Outer Banks (auto, 2.3L) next week. Antimatter Blue. The tuners will be ready soon. My legacy Ford Focus RS (insurance payout after 5 years was 88% of original purchase price, used car prices are up 25% in the last year!) had the same engine, albeit tuned to 350hp. As delivered Ford claims 300hp in the Bronco with premium fuel. The 2.3L can make a lot more HP. Post Cobb tune (coming soon), I am expecting 320-325 hp and 1-2mpg gas mileage improvement. Comparable to the 2.7L engine option which is recommended for those opting for the Sasq. package (more unsprung weight). JCG
 

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You left part of the equation out, less demand = less production, to pay for the multi-billion dollar refineries the cost per gallon goes up.
Nope, gas is a by product of the refining process. What would happen is refineries would reduce capacity and people would lose jobs. When gas was $2 a gal the barrel was @ $40. Oil producers couldn't sustain production so they shut down rigs /fields and waited for the market to change. Same scenario... No demand, reduce supply.
 

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May only be a couple years away, they said...

Widespread adoption, they said...

Cost effective, they said...

That was Fuel Cells in the 90's, seen any around lately?

(History here...)
Damn, are you living under a rock? We saw a handful of fuel cell powered cars in California in lease. Meanwhile, Tesla sold nearly a million EV’s in 2021 alone. Not to mention other Manufacturers ramping up. Solid state batteries may or may not be vaporware at this point but other technologies are being developed by damn near everyone and those we hadn’t heard of. Meanwhile existing chemistry’s are being tweaked and or repackaged for better efficiency. Of course your line of thinking isn’t surprising after you posted that hit piece some months back. The Moron who wrote that article is the personification of the dipshit who claimed to have PTSD after squeezing off a few rounds through an AR15.
 

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A co worker's Tesla crapped out and they quote him 22k and some change and it was 9yrs old so either they tried to screw him or he lied to me. He just walked away from the car. I am sure that tech will advance at some point to where its as cheap or cheaper but I doubt it will be in my life time but you never know. Still a lot of big money in oil and I don't think the oil Billionares what to share any pieces of the pie just yet. So until the oil guys have a controlling share of EV tech I just don't see them letting it happen
Well, after some more interweb searches I found that your friend is not wrong, so I stand corrected. Prices ranges from $12,000 to $22,000. Not sure why their is the huge disparity. But I did find this article interesting:


https://electrek.co/2021/09/13/tesla-battery-pack-replacement-repair/
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