Best Model for Earliest Delivery (Speculation)

[boxwood]

I am really considering a squatched OBX. I like roast + AMB, but am concerned OBX's will be later deliveries.
I would probably be willing to take Badlands with its black interior though if it meant getting the bronco that much sooner.

I am guessing its going to be FE's then a whole bunch of Badlands given their popularity, sorry Wild Track folks.

But that is just a guess.

What do ya'll think?

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[Economisto]

In theory its the base, has the least amount of parts and unpainted parts, and pretty much every other trim has what the base has and more.

 

[L8apex]

If your looking at the ones we've seen the most of from the factory it has been a lot of SAS, BD and OBX.

 

[XCR440]

I think it will be a mix of all of them, people keep going in this build only FE's or Badlands, there will be a mix of the different series. What will make you get it sooner is getting something that doesn't have commodity constraints so you get bumped ahead of earlier orders that do have commodity issues.

I DON'T know what they are, but my GUESS to get an early build:

2.3L Auto
No Sas
8" SYNC screen
Non Badlands/OBX (OBX is a maybe, but these two are a commodity on Bronco Sport already)

 

[Sean492]

I don't expect many FE's to rolling out first as the Black Modular top is a late order and if I had ordered the FE that is what I would expect to receive. I would think that Ford will want to pump out as many variations as possible initially to attract potential new buyers for the 2022 and 2023 model years. But yes, I would expect to see a fair amount of SAS out there.

 

[da_jokker]

Maybe I'm biased, but I would think Ford would want the best of the best out their for marketing. So FE first (has to be by definition), then WT and non-sas BL

Remember, they are not having to appease the masses. Dealers are not having to order what they think people want. All first Broncos are Custom Ordered and as such, why would you build out Bases and OBx when you have know. Buyers for FE,WT, and BL?

 

[Brew3x]

Why wouldn’t they produce the vehicles with the highest profit margin first so they look good for their investors.

 

[Drex]

whatever combinations result in the highest profit for Ford (likely no bases, especially the 2 door loss leader.)

 

[Rubisquatch]

Ford needs sales/revenue. I could be wrong but I suspect that the highest profit margin rig will be built first as it gets them sales/profit while also showing off the best, most equipped Broncos. To this end, the FE, both Sas and non-Sas Badlands, WTs and Sas OBX are the models I expect will be built and shipped first.

Plus, with the statements about commodity limits (can’t Sas or 2.7 every request), they will use Sas parts on a BL, WT or OBX before they Sas a base, BB or BD as they make more $ on the upper trims.

 

[Nickp]

Ford needs sales/revenue. I agree that the highest profit margin rig will be built first as it gets them sales/profit while also showing off the best, most equipped Broncos. To this end, the FE, both Sas and non-Sas Badlands, WTs and Sas OBX are the models I expect will be built and shipped first.

Plus, with the statements about commodity limits (can’t Sas or 2.7 every request), they will use Sas parts on a BL, WT or OBX before they Sas a base, BB or BD as they make more $ on the upper trims.

Yup. I’m a day one order but my Basetrak build Is nowhere near as profitable as an actual wildtrak. I expect to be late summer early fall.

 

[kodiakisland]

I have a first hour reservation and wonder the same thing. I wanted a mansquatch, but I'm not waiting.

I think I'll be going with a 2dr MT BD with no packages or accessories. I'm hoping it will be a quick build with an early delivery. At this point though, nothing is for certain and none of us may get a Bronco in 2021.

 

[Deleted member 13817]

This is my input.

1) Ford has commodities on station right now. There are no guarantees of replenishment or disruptions in the supply chain.

2) You have X number of commodities and Y number of hours you can run the line this year.

3) Software prioritizes the stack and margins (within similar reservation time stamps). Like Maps or Waze prioritizing either the fastest route, scenic route or rate with fewest tolls, as an example.

4) This must be a home run. Top line revenue is going to be top goal in sight, without question.

5) Moral wins don't outweigh hitting revenue targets when you are publicly traded.

6) Diversified Broncos driving around will not be chosen over margins in 2020 of all years.

7) Doesn't mean a day 1 BaseSquatch gets overlooked for a day 5 WildTrak. It may mean a day 1 BaseSquatch gets jumped by a later day 1 Wildtrak. All things equal or within MOE, revenue margin wins out.

 

[Cappy]

What I expect, with some previous experience in commodities and the auto industries is that we'll see a limited number of certain builds roll out first then a surge in the lower trims, middle of the pack builds because they will be able to continue production during delays.

Where Ford is going to run into a problem with the Sasquatch and Badlands build is the Bilstein suspension system. Bilstein is already under water as far as production goes. They're not going to and haven't been meeting customer demands in 2020. Their total production for the year has been down over 60%.

Fabian Schmahl, CEO of Bilstein of America has committed to doing the company's best for Ford as it's a lucrative partnership, but the reality and expectations for Bilstein are two different things. As of Nov. 30 Bilstein was still having trouble filling about 60 open factory positions at the plant where the Bronco suspension will be built.

Other things we know about are certain paint colors, Velocity Blue I'm looking at you, as well as certain accessories and options being "late availability".

We know that the Manual Sasquatch is going to be late. Ford is on record saying that logistically it's going to be a 2022 Year Model.

So, what does that mean for us? Well, aside from the above, it's all speculative and a numbers game. Ford CAN produce every make and model, but they can't produce ALL of them. So we'll see some Sasquatched Badlands get delivered before we see Base and OBX hit streets but not in higher numbers.

Then we'll most likely see the builds that have the lowest commodity restrictions get built interim. If we've got a gap in the factory because Ford is missing 20k suspension kits, they're just going to keep building whatever doesn't require them.

Right now, according to Ford, the popularity of trims goes Wildtrak > Badlands > OBX > Base > Big Bend > Black Diamond.

Wildtraks all have Bilstein suspensions. Every single one, because they're all squatched from the factory. As far as Badlands go, they've got about a 40/60 split in Sasquatch, but they all use Bilstein too, even the non-squatched versions.

So, from that alone, we know that Wildtrak and Badlands are all going to get hit with commodities unless something changes.

I have it on good authority that there are some hang-ups on the Modular front bumpers and screens as well.

Those are just a few examples, but I hear everyday about logistics on parts and factories getting ramped up then having to ramp down because of material productions.

My guess, would be that we'll see Base, OBX and BB versions out on the street more frequently during the early and middle of production. Mainly because those two models won't require as many parts that are going to be restricted.

Otherwise, the fewer options, the better. Stay away from Sasquatch, Badlands and Wildtrak unless you're a late reservation holder, as it won't make much difference, or you run the risk of getting caught up in shortages. Stay away from the Lux package, since we know that the ACC is another part that is being delayed based on sensor production.

The simpler the build, and the lower on the trim chain, the better for your chances of seeing early delivery unless you were way, waaaaaaay late on reserving. If you order a base Base in September, you might have one of the few 2022 base Bases out there.


Sidenote: For me, none of this matters - I'm getting my Oxford White fully loaded 2-Door Badlands sometime in 2024 when it's finally built.

 

[gryphon1231]

I am really considering a squatched OBX. I like roast + AMB, but am concerned OBX's will be later deliveries.
I would probably be willing to take Badlands with its black interior though if it meant getting the bronco that much sooner.

I am guessing its going to be FE's then a whole bunch of Badlands given their popularity, sorry Wild Track folks.

But that is just a guess.

What do ya'll think?

I am really considering a squatched OBX. I like roast + AMB, but am concerned OBX's will be later deliveries.
I would probably be willing to take Badlands with its black interior though if it meant getting the bronco that much sooner.

I am guessing its going to be FE's then a whole bunch of Badlands given their popularity, sorry Wild Track folks.

But that is just a guess.

What do ya'll think?

If you go by what Ford said in their email to reservation holders it should not matter what which Bronco you order, since delivery is going to be based on reservation date, unless you order options that require late a late delivery.

 

[Gamecock]

What I expect, with some previous experience in commodities and the auto industries is that we'll see a limited number of certain builds roll out first then a surge in the lower trims, middle of the pack builds because they will be able to continue production during delays.

Where Ford is going to run into a problem with the Sasquatch and Badlands build is the Bilstein suspension system. Bilstein is already under water as far as production goes. They're not going to and haven't been meeting customer demands in 2020. Their total production for the year has been down over 60%.

Fabian Schmahl, CEO of Bilstein of America has committed to doing the company's best for Ford as it's a lucrative partnership, but the reality and expectations for Bilstein are two different things. As of Nov. 30 Bilstein was still having trouble filling about 60 open factory positions at the plant where the Bronco suspension will be built.

Other things we know about are certain paint colors, Velocity Blue I'm looking at you, as well as certain accessories and options being "late availability".

We know that the Manual Sasquatch is going to be late. Ford is on record saying that logistically it's going to be a 2022 Year Model.

So, what does that mean for us? Well, aside from the above, it's all speculative and a numbers game. Ford CAN produce every make and model, but they can't produce ALL of them. So we'll see some Sasquatched Badlands get delivered before we see Base and OBX hit streets but not in higher numbers.

Then we'll most likely see the builds that have the lowest commodity restrictions get built interim. If we've got a gap in the factory because Ford is missing 20k suspension kits, they're just going to keep building whatever doesn't require them.

Right now, according to Ford, the popularity of trims goes Wildtrak > Badlands > OBX > Base > Big Bend > Black Diamond.

Wildtraks all have Bilstein suspensions. Every single one, because they're all squatched from the factory. As far as Badlands go, they've got about a 40/60 split in Sasquatch, but they all use Bilstein too, even the non-squatched versions.

So, from that alone, we know that Wildtrak and Badlands are all going to get hit with commodities unless something changes.

I have it on good authority that there are some hang-ups on the Modular front bumpers and screens as well.

Those are just a few examples, but I hear everyday about logistics on parts and factories getting ramped up then having to ramp down because of material productions.

My guess, would be that we'll see Base, OBX and BB versions out on the street more frequently during the early and middle of production. Mainly because those two models won't require as many parts that are going to be restricted.

Otherwise, the fewer options, the better. Stay away from Sasquatch, Badlands and Wildtrak unless you're a late reservation holder, as it won't make much difference, or you run the risk of getting caught up in shortages. Stay away from the Lux package, since we know that the ACC is another part that is being delayed based on sensor production.

The simpler the build, and the lower on the trim chain, the better for your chances of seeing early delivery unless you were way, waaaaaaay late on reserving. If you order a base Base in September, you might have one of the few 2022 base Bases out there.


Sidenote: For me, none of this matters - I'm getting my Oxford White fully loaded 2-Door Badlands sometime in 2024 when it's finally built.

Good insight. It seems I'm destined for a very late delivery with a day 5 reservation and plans to order a Sasquatch-ed Badlands with Lux. I would drop Lux for High if it sped it up...first I have heard of a sensor delay.

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