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I can update it at any time.

PenFed offering new car 36 - 72 mo loans at 5.19 - 5.34% currently. While that's a lot higher than we've dealt with the last 10-ish years or more, it's not 9%. But that assumes the credit score of a responsible adult. 9% must be for those in the cellar-ish 600's.

Good point above. They're going to try to maximize profitability while still at least having enough Rangers around to fulfill some of the demand. I don't envy their planning folks. Although I wonder if Rangers really are less profitable, particularly if they come out of the gate producing...

Good point. I've watched some of the TFL Truck videos and they'd been saying for a while that 2023 was going to be the year of the mid-sized truck. There's a bunch of new products in that segment that really look great. I think you're correct in that some Wrangler/Bronco shoppers might be...

Yep, as I mentioned, I don't have any factors for interest rates. That being said, could I see your model so I can incorporate some of your modeling expertise?

Agreed. I kind of don't care, but as F is a decent chunk of my portfolio, I do have a bit of skin in the game and would rather they were closer to 200K and leading the segment than the alternative. That being said, I'm gonna have more fun in a few weeks in the sand on the OBX in my OBX!

Can I see your model?

But wouldn't Ford want to sell 180-220K units, like Jeep does with Wrangler? I've got to believe they didn't get into the game to be in second place.

ADM dropping, at least here in VA. Seeing $3K-ish, unless it's something really in high demand. Should be zero, I agree, but as the stocks build it'll come down and anybody will be able to buy off the lot at sticker. My Ford dealer was pushing 0%/36 mo and 1.9%/72 mo Ford Credit on Escapes...

Oh yeah, they'd love parity with Jeep. But right now, Ford's back somewhere in 2011-2012 with regard to Jeep.

A lot of businesses, including the one that I was running at the time, saw a big blip up from baseline during the pandemic. Others, e.g. travel, which I also had a big hand in, saw a big blip down from baseline. However the net change in economic activity, per US commerce, was basically flat...

Yep. I can't see the fancy people staying away from the Audi Q8 or whatever for too long.

Agreed. Although Jeep has been moving 180 - 220K Wranglers annually in the US since 2019. Maybe there's only demand for 300 - 325K units of this vehicle type in the US? It would be interesting to look at the Jeep data to see if Ford has been cannibalizing Wrangler sales in addition to perhaps...

I think I agree that they'll juggle production to enable more Ranger production and that will cut into Bronco production. One thing to correct in your comment, however. Production has been higher than demand for quite some time. YTD through May, Bronco production has exceeded sales by 11,495...

Take a look at the model and the notes. I'm pretty sure it's a flatline at best this year, and will probably be a dip. I updated the analysis tab in the model to comment on the formulae used to predict both production and sales numbers. Granted, it's crude, but I think flatline would actually...

I don't know. With the data I've got, I could predict 2022 sales within 0.8% as of end of month of May. Applying that model to this year is how I came up with the range for 2023. However, the model doesn't take into account anything about higher interest rates, softening economy, or higher...

Incredible to think about, but my analysis of Ford's own data indicates that they'll sell somewhere between 109 and 111K Broncos in the U.S. in 2023, compared to 117.1K units last year. That's as much as 8K fewer units YoY, even though production has pretty much stabilized. Although...

Never seen the breakdown, but I'd be really interested. My bet is that it'd be something like 90/10, 4dr vs. 2 dr., although the split here would be significantly different.

It definitely does look like more Broncos are stuck somewhere. The cumulative unaccounted for Broncos (this could mean demo units, shipped other markets, etc.) has popped up to 44.6K at EOM May, when that number has been hovering in the mid-to high 20's for the last year or so. However, with...

Had a chance to look at some of the numbers and updated my Google sheet SALES Trailing 3 month daily sales are at 303/day, the lowest level since February 2022. Trailing 3 month daily sales plateaued around 360 since the beginning of the year, but May's poor sold volume (8,211, the lowest since...