From the CFO of Ford. In my experience it does not just revert to the mean, rather it overshoots.
https://jalopnik.com/more-and-more-people-are-falling-behind-on-their-car-lo-1849070028
Total production is 121,670.
Here's the recent history, drawn on a log scale with an exponential Least Squares Fit trendline. Basically, it looks like they're making them as fast as they can.
So (ignoring insurance and maintenance), your friend paid a couple of dollars a mile to drive it. Not the best decision to buy it, if you're not going to drive it.
For me, the 2.3L I-4 and 7-speed stick makes a lot more sense than the 2.7L V-6 and 10-speed automatic. Of course my driveway is more offraoding than most Bronco owners will regularly drive.
My assumption is that Bronco Raptor production will be included in Bronco production figures. I doubt that they will sell that many Bronco Raptors. It's much more expensive.
Every month's production:
Production since June 2021, along with the LSF exponential trendline:
Extending that red line is where the projection comes from.
I'm a bit of a math geek. While I wait for my Badlands order to be built, I played with Ford's Bronco production numbers. It looks like real production got going by June 2021. I took the monthly figures from June 2021 through March 2022 and ran an exponential LSF extrapolation. March 2022...
As someone who owned 5 "Big Broncos" over the years, I never took any of the roofs off. That's not why I ordered a Gen6 Bronco. I can get a 2-door with a stick and great ground clearance. That's what I'm buying. I have no interest in yet another Crossover/SUV/Grocery hauler.