Bronco production update 8/9: Commodity issues far beyond MIC tops. Chip shortage reaches Bronco supply chain (NO COVID TALK)

[mcdoogs]

Okay, I guess I see that point - many suppliers have been underperforming all along. So you suggest to take this data and apply it to all future projections? Do you believe that would be a good representation of what Ford can do?

My point is that the sample size is simply too small and variable at this point to build any kind of reliable model. So, any projection given today that goes beyond the next couple of weeks is simply a total guess.

How confident do you believe Ford should be in the projections before sharing them? Would you rather have them send you a projection that is mostly a guess, or simply say we're unable to give you an accurate projection? That isn't sarcasm, by the way. I'm really interested in what would make people more satisfied.

Yes, I think underpromising with a good chance to over perform is better than radio silence. You don't have to have high confidence in a quarterly or half of a year projection estimates, especially if it's super conservative based on current information. It could even be amended and re emailed monthly or quarterly on new information.

The prevailing opinion in this forum seems to be that Ford is right to be afraid of transparency for some reason. I disagree, as long as estimates are wide, conservative, and clearly communicated that they are estimates only and subject to change over the long term you'll upset far fewer customers than being entirely silent will.

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[ATLColonial]

Several weeks ago I was assured the backlog was going to be inspected and largely cleared during the week of shutdown. Some were, but the rest are still sitting... and all I hear are crickets.

Question on this (to which you likely don't have the answer): what about new builds? Are they shoving all new 2 doors into that lot to run QC and thus putting them behind the ones already there, or are the tops being received/installed now being pre-cleared before being on the cars? Will they need to process all the bad batches before shipping the newer built cars?

 

[mpeugeot]

I have a model right here in my pants... It's says that Ford will be able to deliver (not build) about 25k-35k Broncos by the time MY22 starts. There is little chance that they can hit 60k production based on the latest information coming from all the reliable sources.

It's unknown how many VIN numbers have actually been issued to date, but seeing people have been bumped from June all the way to September isn't a good sign. Also there are people claiming to have converted FE reservations without VIN numbers (which seems crazy).

I'll put my predictions back in my pants now.

 

[BeastMode]

Several weeks ago I was assured the backlog was going to be inspected and largely cleared during the week of shutdown. Some were, but the rest are still sitting... and all I hear are crickets.

Do you know what the backlog issue is? My dealer sees that my Bronco was "produced" on July 15th. On August 1st was at a receiving ramp for the transport company and it hasn't moved, no updates since. I spoke to the transport company who told me that it's still at MAP with a "status hold" from Ford on it. They don't know when it will be released for them to pick it up.

 

[VictoryLights]

Does a VIN and build week guarantee anything?

 

[mpeugeot]

Does a VIN and build week guarantee anything?

No, but it certainly increases your chances of getting built.

 

[Krisegon]

I don't think they'll say much new until they're confident in what they're saying. If that makes sense.

So you're saying they have to be confident enough to reach the level of confidence they had to announce things like, "by September", slide out tailgates, body-color hardtops for OBX, and a hundred other things that didn't pan out? I think that tells us how bad things are going...

 

[indio22]

Great example. We want to believe we're "past" COVID but we aren't at all. Especially when realizing how much further along in vaccinations we are in the US than many countries.

I'm afraid the next 6-8 months are going to see a lot more uncertainty globally and continue to impact supply chains significantly.

We're largely past COVID in the USA, at least for anyone that wanted a vaccine, and given the vaccine effectiveness. (Even if we are not past it psychologically, considering all the mask usage I saw at Walmart yesterday.) The psych part can still screw us up again.

Hopefully some of these other countries will get better access to the vaccines. Particularly older folks or those with high risk factors.

COVID will be around for a while, but a low risk threat for anyone vaccinated. I mean life has risks, and COVID for a vaccinated person is a very low risk. (It was low risk even before vaccines, for persons having no co-morbidities.) Now the risk for vaccinated persons dying is like getting struck by lightning.

 

[MorgansRun]

Remember the good 'ole days of Y2K....ahhh, memories...If only there were lessons to be learned back then.

The Global Impact of Y2K Must Be Dealt With

First, set up a Y2K team, including management and technicians, to minimize Y2K causes and effects.

Second, develop an understanding of the problem, primarily found in legacy programs and embedded chips.

Third, devise a Y2K contingency plan with prevention as a priority. Evaluate your company's global vulnerability, including suppliers worldwide. Review insurance to verify coverage. Consult with legal advisers on ways to anticipate and arbitrate issues that may arise from Y2K.

Fourth, implement and test solutions and encourage your global network to do the same.

Fifth, keep customers informed to ensure they have accurate and current information.

 

[TheWoo]

We're largely past COVID in the USA, at least for anyone that wanted a vaccine, and given the vaccine effectiveness. (Even if we are not past it psychologically, considering all the mask usage I saw at Walmart yesterday.) The psych part can still screw us up again.

Hopefully some of these other countries will get better access to the vaccines. Particularly older folks or those with high risk factors.

COVID will be around for a while, but a low risk threat for anyone vaccinated. I mean life has risks, and COVID for a vaccinated person is a very low risk. (It was low risk even before vaccines, for persons having no co-morbidities.) Now the risk for vaccinated persons dying is like getting struck by lightning.

I agree with this generally - the problem is that the 50% of Americans who are unvaccinated are still at risk, and supply and workforce disruptions will continue as long as we have areas of significant outbreaks. Doesn't matter how safe you and I are if we're vaccinated if we can't get our Bronco because a manufacturing plant shut down that makes XX part due to a COVID outbreak.

 

[Essmith94]

This guy couldn’t wait anymore so he off-roaded his Honda….

 

[mcdoogs]

We're largely past COVID in the USA, at least for anyone that wanted a vaccine, and given the vaccine effectiveness. (Even if we are not past it psychologically, considering all the mask usage I saw at Walmart yesterday.) The psych part can still screw us up again.

Hopefully some of these other countries will get better access to the vaccines. Particularly older folks or those with high risk factors.

COVID will be around for a while, but a low risk threat for anyone vaccinated. I mean life has risks, and COVID for a vaccinated person is a very low risk. (It was low risk even before vaccines, for persons having no co-morbidities.) Now the risk for vaccinated persons dying is like getting struck by lightning.

This ignores growing evidence that even vaccinated people are vectors for incubating variants. This is endemic now, like the flu but more dangerous. Plus there are a whole hell of a lot of people being fooled by the anti-vax lobbying of certain used-to-be-fringe groups

 

[Blksn955.o]

My issue is with using projections of future inventory instead of actual inventory. JIT does not function as an inventory absent environment but an efficient cost effective one. Using future projections as actual instead of actual is a non starter and further fail in situations like this.

Sure it is easy to Monday morning QB 16mo plus into a worldwide pandemic. This is the kind of thing that needs to be evaluated now and in the future. In one email from Ford it even stated something along the lines we are Stockpiling parts to build Bronco...it sounds like either they do not know what that means or their definition of stockpile is fairly low.

Ford is in a tough spot and we are needy b!ches on this site...partly due to non communication on Fords part.

 

[Andrew_EOD]

I'm embracing just getting a 22 or even 23 at this point. It sucks... but the whole world sucks right now.

 

[indio22]

Remember the good 'ole days of Y2K....ahhh, memories...If only there were lessons to be learned back then.

The Global Impact of Y2K Must Be Dealt With

First, set up a Y2K team, including management and technicians, to minimize Y2K causes and effects.

Second, develop an understanding of the problem, primarily found in legacy programs and embedded chips.

Third, devise a Y2K contingency plan with prevention as a priority. Evaluate your company's global vulnerability, including suppliers worldwide. Review insurance to verify coverage. Consult with legal advisers on ways to anticipate and arbitrate issues that may arise from Y2K.

Fourth, implement and test solutions and encourage your global network to do the same.

Fifth, keep customers informed to ensure they have accurate and current information.

There are parallels between Y2K and COVID, in terms of flawed human risk perception. In particular the human weakness of perceiving little known or sensationalized threats, as having a greater risk than reality. I recall acquaintances stockpiling food, buying generators and all kinds of silly stuff, based on fear of Y2k. Fast forward to COVID toilet paper stockpiling, lol.

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