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rchapa8

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Don't be so sure. IMHO they are reacting to the situation, not being proactive about it.
Not disagreeing with you but what are they suppose to do? Give us information they are not sure of or give us the worse case scenario if indeed they have production problems due to covid? At worst most everyone will get their bronco later then expected based on info we have read/heard or ASSUMED. What's the flip side to this? ALL POSITIVE in my opinion. Vaccine works, parts get produced sooner rather then later, broncos get delivered earlier then expected. Can't it get any worse? Possibly but how much more? another month or two delay, something we have to consider anyways bc most of us are pessimist and don't expect good news to come our way lol.
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XCR440

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When Mark LaNeve reports the allocation information to Auto news (or Detroit, don't remember which), I don't think there's any big secret anymore as to how allocation will work. He only said the Reservation, Ford Share, and competitive sales. Granted the % weren't published in the article so that would still be secret (even though I've seen them on many websites). I don't think anyone would pretend that Wrangler isn't the target of the competitive sales allocation.

The secret is still how many Broncos will get built, and I don't know if even Ford has a realistic number for this with the delays and likely parts shortages we could see. I do think it was a mistake not opening ordering in December as planned. Even with production delayed, getting the orders in would allow better knowledge of what options are being ordered to allow more time to try to increase the ones needed.
 

RednWhite89

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Not disagreeing with you but what are they suppose to do? Give us information they are not sure of or give us the worse case scenario if indeed they have production problems due to covid? At worst most everyone will get their bronco later then expected based on info we have read/heard or ASSUMED. What's the flip side to this? ALL POSITIVE in my opinion. Vaccine works, parts get produced sooner rather then later, broncos get delivered earlier then expected. Can't it get any worse? Possibly but how much more? another month or two delay, something we have to consider anyways bc most of us are pessimist and don't expect good news to come our way lol.
I'd say yes, give the worst case scenario and buffer that for the additional unknowns. Then work to beat it.

As an example, in August, one of my factories saw the bottleneck coming. They started with a reactive wait and see approach, things were delayed a couple weeks and people were pissed as there's a lot of coordination involved.
Lesson learned, so they did a complete schedule reset at the end of August. Everyone's orders were push 2 months. We're people upset, yes, but they could then plan accordingly, the factory could buffer production, and things are generally coming out on time now. I even had one ship a week early and the end user was super happy about that.

That's the lens I'm viewing it through. Own your best case future, by anticipating your worst case and giving yourself some buffer time.
 

Boxer4

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Sorry if this has been said, but I don't have time to go through 22 pages, so I just scanned.

1. Allocation. We don't know how it will affect yet. I think it's safe to say it won't be a positive thing for those going to a conquest dealer (getting customers from out of their area), however, we can't say for sure that its a huge negative yet either. My GUESS is it will delay those orders, but there's no info to back that yet, or how much of a delay if it does. Ford did say that allocation estimates will be available in January with ordering so as long as the dealers share that info and moves don't mess it up, everyone should have an idea of delivery before ordering

2. Commodities. I think its safe to say that 2.7L and Sasquatch are two items that demand will outpace supply.

Another issue to consider is they have to build a mix based on more than these two items, so even if Sasquatch is the only commodity, Ford still has to make X number of Wildtraks to use up interiors, so you could see a commodity on Sasquatch total = maximum of X% of orders and a second commodity of Sasquatch less Wildtrak = maximum of Y% of orders meaning that a Outer Banks Sas order could get skipped to make a Wildtrak since they need to make interiors. That said they could also have a limit on total Wildtrak to make it go the other way where they skip a Wildtrak order to build a Sas Outer Banks.

Also the commodity limitation might not be bad, could be limited to 40% Sasquatch and demand could be 42% so it would be limited, but not severely. We just don't know. Until orders are placed neither does Ford, its a safe bet they're trying to get as many wheels/tires as they can to make Sasquatch.

So to sum this up, no way to guess, don't fret about it as you can't do anything at this point, neither can the dealer.
This ^^^ by @XCR440
Your timestamp is relative and will need to clear these two subsets for a build slot -
Allocations & Commodites.

Allocations-
Two questions on this well worn topic:
Can your order be converted if your dealer has no remaining MY21 Allocations?
Still unknow if some dealers will have more allocations than converted reservations.

Commodites-
Will your build be grouped in configuration subsets? Say Ford schedules for MY21 3000 Sasquatch builds a month. Is there now a Sasquatch timestamp list from which these builds are drawn?

One more point on commodites-It is hard to believe Ford is going to sit by and wait for six weeks to see the commodity totals. If they go with a two week snapshot, that alone may impact your build time.
 

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ZackDanger

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When Mark LaNeve reports the allocation information to Auto news (or Detroit, don't remember which), I don't think there's any big secret anymore as to how allocation will work. He only said the Reservation, Ford Share, and competitive sales. Granted the % weren't published in the article so that would still be secret (even though I've seen them on many websites). I don't think anyone would pretend that Wrangler isn't the target of the competitive sales allocation.
[...]
The components of the formula have been wildly shared (even from an internal Ford memo), but the actual formula itself has not been shared... that's still secret, and a big missing piece.

The other missing piece is what the values would be for a specific dealer, to calculate how the formula plays out for them.

We know the equivalent of me saying:

"My decision to purchase a Bronco is based on the amount of down payment I will have saved up, the trade-in value of my current vehicle, and my estimated monthly disposable income at time of purchase and through the length of my loan."

It's fruitless, based on that sentence alone, for anyone to try to guess whether I will purchase a bronc...

...though judging by my post count, I think we can probably all make an educated guess on the matter.
 

Fireman Dave

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Being #2 is meaningless. If your build commodity bumps you later in the fulfilment order, your dealer allocation could be filled by the time your Bronco gets built.
Its better than being customer #499 at the dealer with the same conditions you just mentioned.
 

Studawg

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I cannot comment on the allocation formula as I am under a NDA. All I can say is, our management isn't worried about our allocation of reserved Broncos.


/john
Just so I am clear on what you are saying....

-Stephens Auto Center currently shows 16 New vehicles in inventory.

-You have 300+ reservations for Broncos.

And you are saying management is not worried about your dealership's 2021 allocation preventing you from being able to FILL whatever number of those reservations are converted into orders?

That is what you are implying, Im just trying to be sure thats what you are saying.
 

Fireman Dave

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That's great that you have a dealer locally that you feel that comfortable with. There are no dealers in my metro area that have ever made me want a relationship with them.
Your right, I do consider myself very fortunate in that aspect.
 

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StephensAutoCenter

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Just so I am clear on what you are saying....

-Stephens Auto Center currently shows 16 New vehicles in inventory.

-You have 300+ reservations for Broncos.

And you are saying management is not worried about your dealership's 2021 allocation preventing you from being able to FILL whatever number of those reservations are converted into orders?

That is what you are implying, Im just trying to be sure thats what you are saying.

That is correct.


/john
 

Boxer4

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Its better than being customer #499 at the dealer with the same conditions you just mentioned.
Maybe @Granger Ford @StephensAutoCenter @XCR440 could comment on the process.
Is it correct that Ford first provides the preliminary allocations which only then allows a converted order to be entered into Ford's system. At that point while your build could have a commodity bump, does still it remain a MY21 dealer allocation? Thanks
 

wvmtneer

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Just so I am clear on what you are saying....

-Stephens Auto Center currently shows 16 New vehicles in inventory.

-You have 300+ reservations for Broncos.

And you are saying management is not worried about your dealership's 2021 allocation preventing you from being able to FILL whatever number of those reservations are converted into orders?

That is what you are implying, Im just trying to be sure thats what you are saying.
I wonder if fleet sales are part of the equation? I understand that Stephens has a good amount of fleet sales annually.
 

usarms

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Having been in the car biz for 40+ years I can tell you that allocations are not going to get bigger because a dealer has a ton of orders. Smaller guys will initially get get smaller numbers. If you went to a small guy to save a grand it may (most likely) delay your Bronco. I opted to forego trying to save a buck and went with a dealer that is big in truck and suv business and with no ADM. It's great to have a dealer offer a discount until he gets a small allocation and you end up with a 2022. The manufacturer has criteria that allows you to earn bigger allocations of hot items. It's kinda catch 22. You can't get more unless you sell more but you can't sell more until you get more. Who do you think is going get more the Midwest Ford dealer that is tucked away somewhere selling average volume or the Ford dealer that has multiple megastores in multiple states? At that point the only thing that matters is where you are in the reservation queue.
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