Bronco production update 8/9: Commodity issues far beyond MIC tops. Chip shortage reaches Bronco supply chain (NO COVID TALK)

[balucipher]

It really starts the week off right when Monday starts with confirmation that @Ford Motor Company hasn't murdered @PREMiERdrum

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[TheWoo]

they better know what has been delivered in the past. You take the floor (aka the bottom of a given time slice) of what has been delivered in the past up til now (so a sliding window), use that to project to the future, and build a data model to ' conservatively estimate' what quarter (or even half year) orders will be fulfilled within.

The only past production that is relevant is what has happened in the last 7 days, as full production started one week ago.

There literally is no "past" to use. If they used information from the month(s) before that, we'd see projections into 2024 that are irrelevant.

That's why you build a data model and provide rolling estimates based on past data, that's how all data models work. Which would be infinitely better than radio silence, realize I'm only asking for rough, wide estimates like Q2 2022 or 1H 2022 until an order is actually scheduled.

I understand data models. In order for models based on past data to have any validity, you have to have real, relevant data to build them on. Ford doesn't have any relevant past data.

In order for models based on projections to work, the projections have to have some degree of reliability. What's happening right now is destroying that reliability.

@PREMiERdrumWhy is this happening if Ford has pulled us for a VIN meaning they have the parts to build our Bronco’s? At least thats what I though it meant.

Typically, VINs get created when your vehicle is scheduled, and your vehicle gets scheduled when they project to have the parts. They don't stock up on the parts first and then schedule a vehicle.

The problem appears to be that the projections - which are based on their suppliers' projections - are not coming to fruition. It's very normal right now.

 

[Nickp]

I’ll have to disagree with this. As you’ve read, supply chains are messed up everywhere. EVEN DOMESTICALLY. Want something made, well what happens when that person just doesn’t show up to work because they found a better job somewhere. Line level roles are extremely hard to fill. The hiring market is extremely brutal now. The loyal people on the lines are pulling more hours to cover production while the person that just got a job offer you think is starting tomorrow just called and said they found a better job.

Once the product is made, good luck getting a truck under it. Even in food manufacturing, which is slightly more important than auto manufacturing, loads of food sit because we can’t get trucks under them.

A truck shows up at the dock to pickup the product. Good. They go to unload at a dock and guess what, the dock person quit. Oh the driver ran out of hours and can’t pull in. Looks like the truck gets unloaded the next day.

Oh, well you say what about rail commerce? It takes one person not to show on a switch crew to stop a rail delivery from happening. The thin rail crews get deployed to where the immediate needs are (think oil, oil and oil then maybe grain) Intermodal shipping compounds the trucking and rail issues.

This is just domestic, local shipping routes. Now compound the ships sitting, waiting on customs clearance and then compound the same situations we are seeing here happening overseas.

Ford may know what’s supposed to show up but it’s anyone’s guess on what is actually on that truck or rail car.

I want my bronco just like everyone else but this goes beyond Ford’s control. The best thing they can do is be as transparent as they can right now.

Insanely good summary. As upset as people are, there are ZERO “perfect” solutions and honestly not many good ones either. People are just so disconnected from their “stuff” at this point that I think it’s hard for many to emphasize with the manufacturers. I made an analogy a few months ago and I stick by it, you can only have so many contingency plans and backups. If you’re wheeling in Johnson Valley and grenade your transmission, it isn’t feasible to have a spare on board for that. Sometimes you just gotta wait for the tow truck

The worldwide supply chain currently has an engine running on 3 cylinders, grenaded rear driveshaft , a broken front hub, and probably some sugar in the gas tank too. It’s going to take time to to get out of this under our own power, nothing is going to change that unless a helicopter comes flying in with all that stuff. (It’s not.)

 

[mcdoogs]

Obviously you've made up your mind, so I'll bow out since I do not care to argue against a closed mind.

 

[Monster1926]

Hey guys, I'm alive and well. I taught our band camp last week, 14 hours a day Mon-Fri. I was quite busy.

A blacked out Transit didn't abduct me in the middle of the night or anything.

Things are not great. Commodity issues far beyond the MIC tops have exploded, the chip shortage has finally reached the Bronco supply chain, and nobody really has any good answers at this point. As bad as the issues have been up to this point, this is worse.

Things are so fluid and changing so quickly, by the time I get scraps of new info it's quite likely outdated. If there's one little glimmer of good news, it may just be that the planned volume and availability of the dealer stock 4 door soft top units is quickly trending downward. After all, you can't build the "less desirable" units if you can't build anything at all.

Edit to add: My inbox is crammed with a metric ton of unread messages. If you're waiting on a reply, I'll try to get thru those in the next few days.

Q&A



In all honesty, FE reservation holders are the only ones who should feel super confident about much of anything at this point.

You're good.



To my knowledge, none of the purgatory holds are waiting on chips. MAP hasn't built any Broncos without chips awaiting further installation as other Ford plants have. I've heard of some proposals but nothing that's started yet.



No, emphatically. Hasn't happened, isn't happening, won't happen.

I know your getting blown up but I hope you see this one. Do you know of any planned communication to dealers/res holder? It’s awfully cold out here in the dark.

 

[TheWoo]

Obviously you've made up your mind, so I'll bow out since I do not care to argue against a closed mind.

I'm guessing this was a reply to my post. I don't believe I'm close-minded, I'm just trying to share what I currently believe to be true. And I'd love to be wrong. Help me understand where I am. What data do you believe Ford has that would allow them to make projections of any value?

 

[mds5917]

While I have your attention (and while the Band Camp jokes are going strong!)... our program's new Premier drums (example below) are DONE and will leave the factory tomorrow or Wednesday. My company, Musick Limited - Premier USA, is providing these drums at cost and I'm personally covering all the importation fees. However, freight to get them here is clocking in at about $2,400 in the current market... about 3 times what it should be in a normal market.

If any of you would like to help offset some of these costs, please know how much myself, my kids, and our booster club would appreciate it. Contributions can be sent via Paypal to [email protected].

I appreciate being a part of this community!

Any chance you do Venmo as well as Paypal?

 

[Brianstrange]

If only Ford could inform us as well as you do, there would be happier Bronco reservationists~

 

[PREMiERdrum]

Any chance you do Venmo as well as Paypal?

We don't have a booster Venmo but if you send it to me (@RossMusick) I'll flip it right to the booster Paypal. If you include your email I'll copy you on the transfer notification for the sake of transparency.

Thank you so much!

 

[PREMiERdrum]

I know your getting blown up but I hope you see this one. Do you know of any planned communication to dealers/res holder? It’s awfully cold out here in the dark.

I don't think they'll say much new until they're confident in what they're saying. If that makes sense.

 

[Monster1926]

I don't think they'll say much new until they're confident in what they're saying. If that makes sense.

Perfect sense thank you.

 

[mcdoogs]

I'm guessing this was a reply to my post. I don't believe I'm close-minded, I'm just trying to share what I currently believe to be true. And I'd love to be wrong. Help me understand where I am. What data do you believe Ford has that would allow them to make projections of any value?

Well let's start with your assumption that only the time since 'full production' (lmao) is important. It seems obvious to me that since production started, Ford has not been receiving enough supplies to ever hit their 'just in time' manufacturing goals even for their 'ramp up' production goals, so actually all that delivery data is probably still somewhat relevant (weighted according to time of course). It seems very likely that its been weeks/months that Ford has been receiving the absolute max commodities they could from their suppliers given the evidence that they've not been able to deliver on their scheduled promises.

Again, estimates do not need to be exact and neither does any model to power estimates, but I think it's very likely that given that Ford hasn't been able to actually fully produce so many scheduled builds means that they are tapping out their supply chain and have been for a while.

 

[Gr8Hortoni]

So if we don’t have build dates yet then what ?

 

[RagnarKon]

That's why you build a data model and provide rolling estimates based on past data, that's how all data models work. Which would be infinitely better than radio silence, realize I'm only asking for rough, wide estimates like Q2 2022 or 1H 2022 until an order is actually scheduled.

I’m sure they are doing that. That’s why they are planning an up-and-coming shutdown when no shutdown was planning a month or two ago.

The problem is the resolution on your model can only be high as long as supply chains remain relatively stable. The more instability, the higher the standard deviation, the less resolution the model has, and the less accurate it becomes. Right now supply chains are very unstable. One month a factory might be pumping out 2000-3000 semiconductors a day… the next month a brand new strain of Covid pops up and the entire factory is sitting idle.

To be fair to Ford…. it would be incredibly difficult to correctly communicate an estimated timeframe based on analytics models in the current situation. Back in June when worldwide Covid cases were trending downward, that model might of predicted a Q4 2021 build date. Now those same models might be predicting a Q2/Q3 2022 build date, leaving Ford with the PR nightmare of explaining to their customers why their truck build has been pushed back by 6-9 months.

If Ford was being honest about things… their answer would probably “we don’t know, things are too unpredictable, sometime in 2022 or 2023 probably”. That would obviously be an unacceptable answer for many folks, which is probably why we haven’t heard anything official.

 

[Richtor]

Ford states that they have the chips for the Broncos 60k units. 10k into the build cycle, sorry no more chips? Something seems way off.

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